Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2024-10

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2024-09daily glanceweekly archive →2024-11 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2024-10 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall · held all period
China
disinflationary stall → deflation watch
W41: disinflationary stall → deflation watch
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W42: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M3 ×1 policy_easing
  • M11 ×1 china_credit_impulse
Euro area
  • M3 ×4 policy_easing
  • M13 ×1 contraction_easing
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.31 → 0.30 -0.01 (2024-10-01 → 2024-10-10)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.58 → 2.40 -0.18 (2024-10-01 → 2024-10-10)
  • fx: 102.52 → 104.26 +1.74 (2024-10-04 → 2024-10-25)
  • policy_rate: 5.00 → 5.00 0.00 (2024-10-06 → 2024-10-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.05 → 0.14 +0.09 (2024-10-04 → 2024-10-25)
  • yield_10y: 3.98 → 4.25 +0.27 (2024-10-04 → 2024-10-25)
  • yield_2y: 3.93 → 4.11 +0.18 (2024-10-04 → 2024-10-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 0.40 -0.20 (2024-09-09 → 2024-10-13)
  • fx: 7.05 → 7.12 +0.07 (2024-10-04 → 2024-10-25)
  • gdp: 4.70 → 4.60 -0.10 (2024-07-15 → 2024-10-18)
  • policy_rate: 3.35 → 3.10 -0.25 (2024-09-20 → 2024-10-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.69 → 0.66 -0.04 (2024-09-30 → 2024-10-25)
  • yield_10y: 2.15 → 2.15 +0.00 (2024-09-30 → 2024-10-25)
  • yield_2y: 1.46 → 1.50 +0.04 (2024-09-30 → 2024-10-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.80 → 1.70 -0.10 (2024-10-01 → 2024-10-17)
  • fx: 1.10 → 1.08 -0.02 (2024-10-04 → 2024-10-25)
  • gdp: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2024-10-01 → 2024-10-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 45.00 → 45.90 +0.90 (2024-10-01 → 2024-10-24)
  • pmi_svc: 51.40 → 51.20 -0.20 (2024-10-03 → 2024-10-24)
  • policy_rate: 3.65 → 3.40 -0.25 (2024-09-12 → 2024-10-17)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.70 → 1.70 0.00 (2024-09-20 → 2024-10-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 2.50 -0.50 (2024-09-20 → 2024-10-18)
  • fx: 146.84 → 151.78 +4.94 (2024-10-04 → 2024-10-25)

Busiest week: 2024-W43 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2024-W41 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2024-10 vs 2024-09, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2024-10).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2024-W40

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2024-W41

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2024-W42

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2024-W43

● 4 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M11_china_credit_impulse, M13_contraction_easing, M3_policy_easing, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · easing
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 3 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change