Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2024-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

daily glanceweekly archive →
Half-year

2024-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2024-H2 vs 2024-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2024-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall
W31: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall · W33: disinflationary stall → stagflationary · W35: stagflationary → disinflationary stall · W44: disinflationary stall → stagflationary · W46: stagflationary → disinflationary stall · W48: disinflationary stall → stagflationary · W49: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle · W50: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×10 growth_slowdown
  • M10 ×8 curve_inversion
  • M13 ×8 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M3 ×8 policy_easing
  • M11 ×8 china_credit_impulse
  • M13 ×5 contraction_easing
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M3 ×18 policy_easing
  • M6 ×3 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×2 contraction_easing
Japan
  • M4 ×7 policy_tightening
  • M12 ×7 boj_normalization
  • M2 ×6 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.17 → 0.30 +0.13 (2024-07-01 → 2024-12-11)
  • core_pce: 2.81 → 2.80 -0.01 (2024-07-01 → 2024-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.94 → 2.70 -0.24 (2024-07-01 → 2024-12-11)
  • fx: 104.88 → 108.00 +3.12 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • gdp: 3.30 → 3.10 -0.20 (2024-07-01 → 2024-12-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 48.50 → 48.40 -0.10 (2024-07-01 → 2024-12-02)
  • pmi_svc: 48.80 → 52.10 +3.30 (2024-07-03 → 2024-12-04)
  • policy_rate: 5.50 → 4.50 -1.00 (2024-07-07 → 2024-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: -0.32 → 0.31 +0.63 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • unemployment: 4.10 → 4.20 +0.10 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-06)
  • yield_10y: 4.28 → 4.62 +0.34 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 4.60 → 4.31 -0.29 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2024-06-12 → 2024-12-09)
  • fx: 7.27 → 7.30 +0.03 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • gdp: 5.30 → 4.60 -0.70 (2024-04-16 → 2024-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.40 → 50.10 +0.70 (2024-07-01 → 2024-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 50.50 → 50.00 -0.50 (2024-06-30 → 2024-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 3.45 → 3.10 -0.35 (2024-06-20 → 2024-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.63 → 0.56 -0.07 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • unemployment: 5.20 → 5.10 -0.10 (2024-07-01 → 2024-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 2.28 → 1.69 -0.58 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 1.65 → 1.13 -0.52 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.20 -0.30 (2024-07-02 → 2024-12-18)
  • fx: 1.08 → 1.04 -0.04 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • gdp: 0.20 → -0.30 -0.50 (2024-07-02 → 2024-12-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 45.80 → 45.20 -0.60 (2024-07-01 → 2024-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 52.80 → 51.40 -1.40 (2024-07-03 → 2024-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 4.25 → 3.15 -1.10 (2024-06-06 → 2024-12-12)
  • unemployment: 6.40 → 6.30 -0.10 (2024-07-02 → 2024-12-02)
  • yield_10y: 3.11 → 2.81 -0.30 (2024-07-01 → 2024-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.70 → 1.70 0.00 (2024-06-21 → 2024-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.80 → 2.90 +0.10 (2024-06-21 → 2024-12-20)
  • fx: 161.36 → 157.75 -3.61 (2024-07-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.25 +0.15 (2024-06-14 → 2024-12-19)
  • unemployment: 2.60 → 2.50 -0.10 (2024-06-28 → 2024-12-27)
  • yield_10y: 1.04 → 1.09 +0.04 (2024-07-01 → 2024-12-01)

Busiest week: 2024-W31 (7 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2024-W29 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2024-Q3
quarterly board
2024-Q4
quarterly board