Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2024-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2024-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2024-H1 vs 2023-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2024-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle
W05: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle · W09: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary · W14: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stagflationary → disinflationary stall
W09: stagflationary → disinflationary stall
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M10 ×26 curve_inversion
  • M6 ×14 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×8 contraction_easing
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
  • M9 ×2 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M13 ×9 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×8 yield_spike
  • M6 ×6 growth_slowdown
  • M3 ×4 policy_easing
Japan
  • M2 ×14 inflation_surprise_down
  • M9 ×12 yield_spike
  • M4 ×5 policy_tightening
  • M12 ×5 boj_normalization

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.36 → 0.20 -0.16 (2024-01-01 → 2024-06-12)
  • core_pce: 3.16 → 2.60 -0.56 (2024-01-01 → 2024-06-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.09 → 3.30 +0.21 (2024-01-01 → 2024-06-12)
  • fx: 102.41 → 105.87 +3.46 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-28)
  • gdp: 0.80 → 1.40 +0.60 (2024-01-01 → 2024-06-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.40 → 48.70 +1.30 (2024-01-03 → 2024-06-03)
  • pmi_svc: 50.60 → 53.80 +3.20 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-05)
  • policy_rate: 5.50 → 5.50 0.00 (2024-01-07 → 2024-06-30)
  • slope_2s10s: -0.35 → -0.35 0.00 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-28)
  • unemployment: 3.70 → 4.00 +0.30 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-07)
  • yield_10y: 4.05 → 4.36 +0.31 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-28)
  • yield_2y: 4.40 → 4.71 +0.31 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → 0.30 +0.80 (2023-12-09 → 2024-06-12)
  • fx: 7.11 → 7.27 +0.16 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-28)
  • gdp: 4.90 → 5.30 +0.40 (2023-10-18 → 2024-04-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.20 → 49.50 +0.30 (2024-01-01 → 2024-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 50.40 → 50.50 +0.10 (2023-12-31 → 2024-06-30)
  • policy_rate: 3.45 → 3.45 0.00 (2023-12-20 → 2024-06-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.28 → 0.57 +0.29 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-28)
  • unemployment: 5.20 → 5.00 -0.20 (2024-01-01 → 2024-06-01)
  • yield_10y: 2.52 → 2.21 -0.31 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.24 → 1.63 -0.60 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 2.60 -0.30 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-18)
  • fx: 1.09 → 1.07 -0.02 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-28)
  • gdp: 0.20 → 0.20 0.00 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 44.40 → 45.60 +1.20 (2024-01-02 → 2024-06-21)
  • pmi_svc: 48.80 → 52.60 +3.80 (2024-01-04 → 2024-06-21)
  • policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.25 -0.25 (2023-12-14 → 2024-06-06)
  • unemployment: 6.50 → 6.40 -0.10 (2023-11-30 → 2024-05-30)
  • yield_10y: 2.90 → 3.17 +0.26 (2024-01-01 → 2024-06-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.70 → 1.70 -1.00 (2023-12-22 → 2024-06-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.80 → 2.80 0.00 (2023-12-22 → 2024-06-21)
  • fx: 144.76 → 160.69 +15.92 (2024-01-05 → 2024-06-28)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → 0.10 +0.20 (2023-12-19 → 2024-06-14)
  • unemployment: 2.60 → 2.60 0.00 (2023-12-26 → 2024-06-28)
  • yield_10y: 0.73 → 1.05 +0.32 (2024-01-01 → 2024-06-01)

Busiest week: 2024-W16 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2024-W01 (3 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2024-Q1
quarterly board
2024-Q2
quarterly board