Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2023-H2

Half-year aggregate · 27 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2023-H2 — 27 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2023-H2 vs 2023-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2023-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 27 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stagflationary · held all period
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stagflationary → disinflationary stall
W48: stagflationary → disinflationary stall
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M10 ×27 curve_inversion
  • M13 ×13 contraction_easing
  • M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
China
  • M6 ×10 growth_slowdown
  • M3 ×7 policy_easing
  • M11 ×7 china_credit_impulse
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M4 ×17 policy_tightening
  • M9 ×14 yield_spike
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M6 ×3 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M9 ×14 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.30 +0.09 (2023-07-01 → 2023-12-12)
  • core_pce: 4.30 → 3.20 -1.10 (2023-07-01 → 2023-12-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.29 → 3.10 -0.19 (2023-07-01 → 2023-12-12)
  • fx: 102.91 → 101.33 -1.58 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • gdp: 4.70 → 4.90 +0.20 (2023-07-01 → 2023-12-21)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.90 → 46.70 -0.20 (2023-06-01 → 2023-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 50.30 → 52.70 +2.40 (2023-06-05 → 2023-12-05)
  • policy_rate: 5.25 → 5.50 +0.25 (2023-07-02 → 2023-12-31)
  • slope_2s10s: -1.06 → -0.35 +0.71 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • unemployment: 3.50 → 3.70 +0.20 (2023-07-01 → 2023-12-08)
  • yield_10y: 3.81 → 3.88 +0.07 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • yield_2y: 4.87 → 4.23 -0.64 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-29)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → -0.50 -0.70 (2023-06-09 → 2023-12-09)
  • fx: 7.25 → 7.11 -0.14 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • gdp: 4.50 → 4.90 +0.40 (2023-04-18 → 2023-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.30 → 49.00 -0.30 (2023-07-01 → 2023-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 53.20 → 50.40 -2.80 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-31)
  • policy_rate: 3.55 → 3.45 -0.10 (2023-06-20 → 2023-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.49 → 0.35 -0.14 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-31)
  • unemployment: 5.30 → 5.10 -0.20 (2023-07-01 → 2023-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 2.64 → 2.56 -0.08 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-31)
  • yield_2y: 2.14 → 2.21 +0.07 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-31)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 5.50 → 2.40 -3.10 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-19)
  • fx: 1.09 → 1.11 +0.02 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • gdp: 0.30 → -0.60 -0.90 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 43.60 → 44.20 +0.60 (2023-06-23 → 2023-12-15)
  • pmi_svc: 52.40 → 48.10 -4.30 (2023-06-23 → 2023-12-15)
  • policy_rate: 4.00 → 4.50 +0.50 (2023-06-15 → 2023-12-14)
  • unemployment: 6.50 → 6.50 0.00 (2023-06-30 → 2023-11-30)
  • yield_10y: 3.27 → 2.86 -0.40 (2023-07-01 → 2023-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.60 → 2.70 +0.10 (2023-06-23 → 2023-12-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.20 → 2.80 -0.40 (2023-06-23 → 2023-12-22)
  • fx: 144.78 → 141.43 -3.35 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-29)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2023-06-16 → 2023-12-19)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.60 +0.10 (2023-06-30 → 2023-12-26)
  • yield_10y: 0.59 → 0.62 +0.03 (2023-07-01 → 2023-12-01)

Busiest week: 2023-W35 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2023-W44 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2023-Q3
quarterly board
2023-Q4
quarterly board