Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2022-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2022-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2022-H1 vs 2021-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2022-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W12: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle · W16: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall · W20: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down
  • M10 ×1 curve_inversion
China
  • M3 ×8 policy_easing
  • M11 ×8 china_credit_impulse
  • M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×5 contraction_easing
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M9 ×26 yield_spike
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M1 ×9 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×8 inflation_surprise_down
  • M9 ×5 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.55 → 0.60 +0.05 (2022-01-01 → 2022-06-10)
  • core_pce: 5.36 → 5.32 -0.04 (2022-01-01 → 2022-06-01)
  • cpi_yoy: 7.56 → 8.60 +1.04 (2022-01-01 → 2022-06-10)
  • fx: 95.67 → 104.19 +8.52 (2021-12-31 → 2022-06-24)
  • gdp: -1.00 → -1.50 -0.50 (2022-01-01 → 2022-05-26)
  • pmi_mfg: 61.10 → 56.10 -5.00 (2021-12-01 → 2022-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 69.10 → 55.90 -13.20 (2021-12-03 → 2022-06-03)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 1.75 +1.50 (2022-01-02 → 2022-06-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.79 → 0.09 -0.70 (2021-12-31 → 2022-06-24)
  • unemployment: 4.00 → 3.60 -0.40 (2022-01-01 → 2022-06-03)
  • yield_10y: 1.52 → 3.13 +1.61 (2021-12-31 → 2022-06-24)
  • yield_2y: 0.73 → 3.04 +2.31 (2021-12-31 → 2022-06-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 2.10 -0.20 (2021-12-09 → 2022-06-10)
  • fx: 6.37 → 6.70 +0.33 (2021-12-31 → 2022-06-24)
  • gdp: 4.90 → 4.80 -0.10 (2021-10-18 → 2022-04-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 50.20 +0.10 (2022-01-01 → 2022-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 52.70 → 47.80 -4.90 (2021-12-31 → 2022-05-31)
  • policy_rate: 3.80 → 3.70 -0.10 (2021-12-20 → 2022-06-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.40 → 0.49 +0.09 (2021-12-31 → 2022-06-24)
  • unemployment: 5.30 → 5.50 +0.20 (2022-01-01 → 2022-06-01)
  • yield_10y: 2.78 → 2.80 +0.02 (2021-12-31 → 2022-06-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.37 → 2.31 -0.06 (2021-12-31 → 2022-06-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 4.90 → 8.10 +3.20 (2021-12-17 → 2022-06-17)
  • fx: 1.13 → 1.05 -0.08 (2021-12-31 → 2022-06-24)
  • gdp: 0.40 → 0.80 +0.40 (2021-12-17 → 2022-06-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.00 → 52.00 -6.00 (2021-12-16 → 2022-06-23)
  • pmi_svc: 53.30 → 52.80 -0.50 (2021-12-16 → 2022-06-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2021-12-16 → 2022-06-09)
  • unemployment: 7.30 → 6.80 -0.50 (2021-12-02 → 2022-06-01)
  • yield_10y: 0.53 → 2.44 +1.90 (2022-01-01 → 2022-06-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.20 → 0.20 +1.40 (2021-12-24 → 2022-06-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 2.50 +1.90 (2021-12-24 → 2022-06-24)
  • fx: 115.06 → 134.84 +19.78 (2021-12-31 → 2022-06-24)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-12-17 → 2022-06-17)
  • unemployment: 2.80 → 2.50 -0.30 (2021-12-28 → 2022-05-31)
  • yield_10y: 0.17 → 0.23 +0.06 (2022-01-01 → 2022-06-01)

Busiest week: 2022-W12 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2022-W08 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2022-Q1
quarterly board
2022-Q2
quarterly board