Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2022-03

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2022-02daily glanceweekly archive →2022-04 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2022-03 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
disinflationary stall · held all period
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle
W12: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×1 inflation_surprise_down
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.27 → 0.50 +0.23 (2022-03-01 → 2022-03-10)
  • cpi_yoy: 8.57 → 7.90 -0.67 (2022-03-01 → 2022-03-10)
  • fx: 98.65 → 98.81 +0.16 (2022-03-04 → 2022-03-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.50 +0.25 (2022-03-06 → 2022-03-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.24 → 0.18 -0.06 (2022-03-04 → 2022-03-25)
  • yield_10y: 1.74 → 2.48 +0.74 (2022-03-04 → 2022-03-25)
  • yield_2y: 1.50 → 2.30 +0.80 (2022-03-04 → 2022-03-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 0.90 0.00 (2022-02-16 → 2022-03-09)
  • fx: 6.32 → 6.37 +0.05 (2022-03-04 → 2022-03-25)
  • policy_rate: 3.70 → 3.70 0.00 (2022-02-21 → 2022-03-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.52 → 0.47 -0.04 (2022-03-04 → 2022-03-25)
  • yield_10y: 2.81 → 2.80 -0.02 (2022-03-04 → 2022-03-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.30 → 2.32 +0.03 (2022-03-04 → 2022-03-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 5.80 → 5.90 +0.10 (2022-03-02 → 2022-03-17)
  • fx: 1.11 → 1.10 -0.01 (2022-03-04 → 2022-03-25)
  • gdp: 0.90 → 0.90 0.00 (2022-03-02 → 2022-03-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.20 → 57.00 -1.20 (2022-03-01 → 2022-03-24)
  • pmi_svc: 55.50 → 54.80 -0.70 (2022-03-03 → 2022-03-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2022-02-03 → 2022-03-10)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.90 → 2.10 +4.00 (2022-02-18 → 2022-03-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 3.30 +2.80 (2022-02-18 → 2022-03-24)
  • fx: 115.47 → 122.35 +6.87 (2022-03-04 → 2022-03-25)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2022-01-18 → 2022-03-18)

Busiest week: 2022-W12 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2022-W11 (4 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2022-03 vs 2022-02, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2022-03).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2022-W09

● 4 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2022-W10

● 5 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2022-W11

● 4 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2022-W12

● 4 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 3 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active