Core inflation comes in higher than the prior reading.
Why: Core strips out food and energy, so a move in it signals persistent, broad price pressure rather than a one-off in volatile items — the kind a central bank reacts to.
The market reprices the policy-rate path higher.
Why: If inflation is stickier than thought, the central bank must keep rates higher for longer to cool it; traders bake that expectation into the whole rate curve immediately, before any actual hike.
Real yieldsreal yield — The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation. rise, not just nominal yieldsnominal yield — The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation..
Why: The inflation is already in the print, so the jump in nominal yields isn't just compensating for higher inflation — it's a genuine rise in the inflation-adjusted return demanded by lenders.
A higher real yield is a higher discount ratediscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. on future cash flows.
Why: Money earned years from now is discounted back to today at the real rate; when that rate rises, distant cash flows shrink in present-value terms more than near ones.
Long-duration growth equities de-rate hardest; banks and value hold up; the currency firms.
Why: Growth stocks are valued mostly on far-future profits, so a higher discount rate hits them most. Banks earn more as rates rise (wider margins), and value/cyclical earnings sit nearer in time. Higher local rates also pull in foreign capital, lifting the currency.

Helps
financialsvalueUSDshort-duration bonds

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated government bondsgold (in real terms)

Caveat: Misfires if the print is read as one-off/transitory, or if growth is simultaneously rolling over (a stagflation mix), where cyclicals don't get the usual lift.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

M5Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 60.8 → 64.7 (+3.9)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is above 50 and rising.
Why: A reading above 50 means more firms report expanding activity than contracting; rising means the breadth of expansion is widening — a timely, forward-looking growth signal.
Earnings expectations broaden toward economically-sensitive sectors.
Why: Stronger activity feeds revenue and pricing power first in the parts of the market geared to the physical economy.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and commodities lead; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. lag.
Why: Capital rotates toward the cycle — industrials, materials, energy, smaller and more leveraged firms, and the commodities their activity consumes — while steady-demand defensives become relatively less attractive.

Helps
cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy)small-capsEM equitycommodities

Hurts
defensive sectors (staples, utilities)long government bonds

Caveat: If acceleration also stokes inflation fears, the bond-yield response can offset the equity benefit (good growth becomes 'too good'), especially late-cycle.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

China

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	4.13	1.70	+2.43 ▲	2021-04-01
Core CPI	0.81	0.10	+0.71 ▲	2021-04-01
Core PCE	3.13	1.40	+1.73 ▲	2021-04-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2021-04-11
GDP	7.00	4.30	+2.70 ▲	2021-04-01
PMI (mfg)	64.70	60.80	+3.90 ▲	2021-04-01
PMI (svc)	63.70	55.30	+8.40 ▲	2021-04-05
Unemployment	6.00	6.10	-0.10 ▬	2021-04-02
10Y yield	1.67	1.64	+0.03 ▬	2021-04-09
2Y yield	0.16	0.14	+0.02 ▬	2021-04-09
2s10s slope	1.51	1.50	+0.01 ▬	2021-04-09
FX vs USD	92.16	92.06	+0.10 ▬	2021-04-09

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.40	-0.20	+0.60 ▲	2021-04-09
Policy rate	3.85	3.85	+0.00 ▬	2021-03-22
GDP	6.50	4.90	+1.60 ▲	2021-01-18
PMI (mfg)	51.10	51.90	-0.80 ▼	2021-04-01
PMI (svc)	56.30	51.40	+4.90 ▲	2021-03-31
Unemployment	5.10	5.30	-0.20 ▼	2021-04-01
10Y yield	3.21	3.22	-0.01 ▬	2021-04-09
2Y yield	2.81	2.81	-0.01 ▬	2021-04-09
2s10s slope	0.40	0.41	-0.01 ▬	2021-04-09
FX vs USD	6.55	6.54	+0.01 ▬	2021-04-09

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.30	0.90	+0.40 ▲	2021-03-31
Policy rate	0.00	0.00	+0.00 ▬	2021-03-11
GDP	0.90	0.20	+0.70 ▲	2021-03-31
PMI (mfg)	62.50	62.40	+0.10 ▬	2021-04-01
PMI (svc)	49.60	48.80	+0.80 ▲	2021-04-07
Unemployment	8.30	8.10	+0.20 ▲	2021-04-06
10Y yield	0.20	0.15	+0.06 ▲	2021-04-01 ⚠
FX vs USD	1.19	1.19	+0.00 ▬	2021-04-09

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.50	-0.70	+0.20 ▲	2021-03-19
Core CPI	0.10	0.10	+0.00 ▬	2021-03-19
Policy rate	-0.10	-0.10	+0.00 ▬	2021-03-19
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.90	2.90	+0.00 ▬	2021-03-30
10Y yield	0.09	0.12	-0.03 ▬	2021-04-01 ⚠
FX vs USD	109.33	109.85	-0.52 ▼	2021-04-09

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield ✓: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield ✓: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.