Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2021-04

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2021-03daily glanceweekly archive →2021-05 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2021-04 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target
W15: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.81 → 0.30 -0.51 (2021-04-01 → 2021-04-13)
  • cpi_yoy: 4.13 → 2.60 -1.53 (2021-04-01 → 2021-04-13)
  • fx: 92.93 → 90.86 -2.07 (2021-04-01 → 2021-04-23)
  • pmi_svc: 55.30 → 63.70 +8.40 (2021-03-03 → 2021-04-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-04-04 → 2021-04-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.53 → 1.42 -0.11 (2021-04-02 → 2021-04-23)
  • yield_10y: 1.72 → 1.58 -0.14 (2021-04-02 → 2021-04-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.19 → 0.16 -0.03 (2021-04-02 → 2021-04-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: -0.20 → 0.40 +0.60 (2021-03-10 → 2021-04-09)
  • fx: 6.56 → 6.49 -0.07 (2021-04-02 → 2021-04-23)
  • gdp: 6.50 → 18.30 +11.80 (2021-01-18 → 2021-04-16)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2021-03-22 → 2021-04-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.44 → 0.48 +0.04 (2021-04-02 → 2021-04-25)
  • yield_10y: 3.20 → 3.18 -0.02 (2021-04-02 → 2021-04-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.77 → 2.71 -0.06 (2021-04-02 → 2021-04-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 1.30 0.00 (2021-03-31 → 2021-04-16)
  • fx: 1.18 → 1.20 +0.02 (2021-04-02 → 2021-04-23)
  • gdp: 0.90 → 0.90 0.00 (2021-03-31 → 2021-04-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 62.50 → 63.30 +0.80 (2021-04-01 → 2021-04-23)
  • pmi_svc: 48.80 → 50.30 +1.50 (2021-03-24 → 2021-04-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2021-03-11 → 2021-04-22)
  • unemployment: 8.10 → 8.30 +0.20 (2021-03-04 → 2021-04-06)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.00 -0.10 (2021-03-19 → 2021-04-23)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → -0.40 +0.10 (2021-03-19 → 2021-04-23)
  • fx: 110.61 → 107.98 -2.63 (2021-04-02 → 2021-04-23)

Busiest week: 2021-W16 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2021-W13 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-04 vs 2021-03, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-04).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2021-W13

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W14

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W15

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 2 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W16

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 2 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change