Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2021-12

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2021-11daily glanceweekly archive →2022-01 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2021-12 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Japan
deflation watch → disinflationary stall
W51: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
  • M3 ×1 policy_easing
  • M11 ×1 china_credit_impulse
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.63 → 0.50 -0.13 (2021-12-01 → 2021-12-10)
  • core_pce: 5.21 → 4.70 -0.51 (2021-12-01 → 2021-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 7.17 → 6.80 -0.37 (2021-12-01 → 2021-12-10)
  • fx: 96.12 → 96.02 -0.10 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-23)
  • gdp: 2.10 → 2.30 +0.20 (2021-11-24 → 2021-12-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-12-05 → 2021-12-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.75 → 0.79 +0.04 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-23)
  • yield_10y: 1.35 → 1.50 +0.15 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.60 → 0.71 +0.11 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 2.30 +0.80 (2021-11-10 → 2021-12-09)
  • fx: 6.38 → 6.37 -0.01 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-24)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.80 -0.05 (2021-11-22 → 2021-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.33 → 0.34 +0.00 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-24)
  • yield_10y: 2.87 → 2.82 -0.05 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.54 → 2.48 -0.05 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 4.90 → 4.90 0.00 (2021-11-30 → 2021-12-17)
  • fx: 1.13 → 1.13 +0.00 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-24)
  • gdp: 0.50 → 0.40 -0.10 (2021-11-30 → 2021-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.40 → 58.00 -0.40 (2021-12-01 → 2021-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 55.90 → 53.30 -2.60 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2021-10-28 → 2021-12-16)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.20 → -1.20 0.00 (2021-11-19 → 2021-12-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.10 → 0.60 +0.50 (2021-11-19 → 2021-12-24)
  • fx: 113.02 → 114.46 +1.44 (2021-12-03 → 2021-12-24)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-10-28 → 2021-12-17)

Busiest week: 2021-W51 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2021-W48 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-12 vs 2021-11, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-12).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2021-W48

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2021-W49

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2021-W50

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2021-W51

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M11_china_credit_impulse, M3_policy_easing, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · easing
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 2 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change