Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2021-11

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2021-10daily glanceweekly archive →2021-12 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2021-11 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W45: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.62 → 0.60 -0.02 (2021-11-01 → 2021-11-10)
  • core_pce: 4.89 → 4.10 -0.79 (2021-11-01 → 2021-11-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 6.90 → 6.20 -0.70 (2021-11-01 → 2021-11-10)
  • fx: 94.32 → 96.09 +1.77 (2021-11-05 → 2021-11-26)
  • gdp: 2.00 → 2.10 +0.10 (2021-10-28 → 2021-11-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-11-07 → 2021-11-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.06 → 0.98 -0.08 (2021-11-05 → 2021-11-26)
  • yield_10y: 1.45 → 1.48 +0.03 (2021-11-05 → 2021-11-26)
  • yield_2y: 0.39 → 0.50 +0.11 (2021-11-05 → 2021-11-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 1.50 +0.80 (2021-10-14 → 2021-11-10)
  • fx: 6.40 → 6.39 -0.01 (2021-11-05 → 2021-11-26)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2021-10-20 → 2021-11-22)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.37 → 0.35 -0.03 (2021-11-05 → 2021-11-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.89 → 2.82 -0.07 (2021-11-05 → 2021-11-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.52 → 2.47 -0.04 (2021-11-05 → 2021-11-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 4.10 → 4.10 0.00 (2021-10-29 → 2021-11-17)
  • fx: 1.16 → 1.12 -0.03 (2021-11-05 → 2021-11-26)
  • gdp: 0.80 → 0.80 0.00 (2021-10-29 → 2021-11-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.30 → 58.60 +0.30 (2021-11-02 → 2021-11-23)
  • pmi_svc: 54.60 → 56.60 +2.00 (2021-11-04 → 2021-11-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.80 → -1.20 -0.40 (2021-10-22 → 2021-11-19)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2021-10-22 → 2021-11-19)
  • fx: 113.84 → 115.07 +1.23 (2021-11-05 → 2021-11-26)

Busiest week: 2021-W47 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2021-W45 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-11 vs 2021-10, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-11).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2021-W44

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W45

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W46

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2021-W47

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active