Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2021-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2021-07daily glanceweekly archive →2021-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2021-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
disinflationary stall · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.13 → 0.30 +0.17 (2021-08-01 → 2021-08-11)
  • core_pce: 3.96 → 3.60 -0.36 (2021-08-01 → 2021-08-27)
  • cpi_yoy: 5.15 → 5.40 +0.25 (2021-08-01 → 2021-08-11)
  • fx: 92.17 → 92.69 +0.52 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-27)
  • gdp: 6.50 → 6.60 +0.10 (2021-07-29 → 2021-08-26)
  • pmi_mfg: 60.60 → 59.50 -1.10 (2021-07-01 → 2021-08-02)
  • pmi_svc: 60.10 → 64.10 +4.00 (2021-07-06 → 2021-08-04)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-08-01 → 2021-08-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.05 → 1.09 +0.04 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-27)
  • unemployment: 5.10 → 5.40 +0.30 (2021-08-01 → 2021-08-06)
  • yield_10y: 1.24 → 1.31 +0.07 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-27)
  • yield_2y: 0.19 → 0.22 +0.03 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.10 → 1.00 -0.10 (2021-07-09 → 2021-08-09)
  • fx: 6.46 → 6.48 +0.03 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-27)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2021-07-20 → 2021-08-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.38 → 0.37 -0.02 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-27)
  • yield_10y: 2.84 → 2.87 +0.03 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.45 → 2.50 +0.05 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 2.20 0.00 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-18)
  • fx: 1.19 → 1.18 -0.01 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-27)
  • gdp: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 62.60 → 61.50 -1.10 (2021-07-23 → 2021-08-23)
  • pmi_svc: 60.40 → 59.70 -0.70 (2021-07-23 → 2021-08-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.10 → -0.80 +0.30 (2021-07-20 → 2021-08-20)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → -0.30 +0.20 (2021-07-20 → 2021-08-20)
  • fx: 109.41 → 110.05 +0.64 (2021-07-30 → 2021-08-27)

Busiest week: 2021-W30 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2021-W32 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-08 vs 2021-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2021-W30

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W31

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W32

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W33

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2021-W34

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active