Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2021-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2021-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-H2 vs 2021-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W35: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
Japan
deflation watch → disinflationary stall
W51: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
  • M2 ×7 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up
China
  • M6 ×9 growth_slowdown
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M3 ×1 policy_easing
  • M11 ×1 china_credit_impulse
Euro area
  • M9 ×9 yield_spike
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.36 → 0.50 +0.14 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-10)
  • core_pce: 3.93 → 4.70 +0.77 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 5.25 → 6.80 +1.55 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-10)
  • fx: 92.23 → 96.02 +3.79 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-23)
  • gdp: 3.30 → 2.30 -1.00 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-22)
  • pmi_mfg: 60.60 → 61.10 +0.50 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 64.00 → 69.10 +5.10 (2021-06-03 → 2021-12-03)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-07-04 → 2021-12-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.20 → 0.79 -0.41 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-23)
  • unemployment: 5.90 → 4.20 -1.70 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-03)
  • yield_10y: 1.44 → 1.50 +0.06 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.24 → 0.71 +0.47 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 2.30 +1.00 (2021-06-09 → 2021-12-09)
  • fx: 6.47 → 6.37 -0.10 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-24)
  • gdp: 18.30 → 4.90 -13.40 (2021-04-16 → 2021-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.40 → 50.30 -0.10 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 53.50 → 52.30 -1.20 (2021-06-30 → 2021-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.80 -0.05 (2021-06-21 → 2021-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.43 → 0.34 -0.09 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-24)
  • unemployment: 5.10 → 5.10 0.00 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.08 → 2.82 -0.26 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.65 → 2.48 -0.17 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 4.90 +3.00 (2021-06-30 → 2021-12-17)
  • fx: 1.18 → 1.13 -0.05 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-24)
  • gdp: 0.30 → 0.40 +0.10 (2021-06-30 → 2021-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 63.40 → 58.00 -5.40 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 58.00 → 53.30 -4.70 (2021-06-23 → 2021-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2021-06-10 → 2021-12-16)
  • unemployment: 7.90 → 7.30 -0.60 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-02)
  • yield_10y: 0.16 → 0.28 +0.12 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.10 → -1.20 -0.10 (2021-06-18 → 2021-12-24)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.80 → 0.60 +1.40 (2021-06-18 → 2021-12-24)
  • fx: 111.57 → 114.46 +2.89 (2021-07-02 → 2021-12-24)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-06-18 → 2021-12-17)
  • unemployment: 3.00 → 2.70 -0.30 (2021-06-29 → 2021-11-30)
  • yield_10y: 0.01 → 0.07 +0.06 (2021-07-01 → 2021-12-01)

Busiest week: 2021-W35 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2021-W32 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2021-Q3
quarterly board
2021-Q4
quarterly board