Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2021-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2021-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-H1 vs 2020-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W13: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W15: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W17: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
China
deflation watch → stall-speed, at target
W19: deflation watch → disinflationary stall · W23: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
W13: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×17 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×8 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×9 yield_spike
Japan
  • M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.02 → 0.70 +0.68 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-10)
  • core_pce: 1.70 → 3.40 +1.70 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.37 → 5.00 +3.63 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-10)
  • fx: 89.94 → 91.81 +1.87 (2020-12-31 → 2021-06-25)
  • gdp: 5.70 → 6.40 +0.70 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-24)
  • pmi_mfg: 57.50 → 61.20 +3.70 (2020-12-01 → 2021-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 55.90 → 64.00 +8.10 (2020-12-03 → 2021-06-03)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-01-03 → 2021-06-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.80 → 1.26 +0.46 (2020-12-31 → 2021-06-25)
  • unemployment: 6.40 → 5.80 -0.60 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-04)
  • yield_10y: 0.93 → 1.54 +0.61 (2020-12-31 → 2021-06-25)
  • yield_2y: 0.13 → 0.28 +0.15 (2020-12-31 → 2021-06-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → 1.30 +1.80 (2020-12-09 → 2021-06-09)
  • fx: 6.53 → 6.47 -0.06 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-25)
  • gdp: 4.90 → 18.30 +13.40 (2020-10-19 → 2021-04-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 50.90 -0.40 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 55.70 → 55.20 -0.50 (2020-12-31 → 2021-05-31)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2020-12-21 → 2021-06-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.42 → 0.42 -0.00 (2020-12-31 → 2021-06-25)
  • unemployment: 5.40 → 5.00 -0.40 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.14 → 3.08 -0.06 (2020-12-31 → 2021-06-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.72 → 2.67 -0.06 (2020-12-31 → 2021-06-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: -0.30 → 2.00 +2.30 (2020-12-17 → 2021-06-17)
  • fx: 1.22 → 1.19 -0.03 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-25)
  • gdp: -0.30 → 0.30 +0.60 (2020-12-17 → 2021-06-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 55.50 → 63.10 +7.60 (2020-12-16 → 2021-06-23)
  • pmi_svc: 47.30 → 58.00 +10.70 (2020-12-16 → 2021-06-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2020-12-10 → 2021-06-10)
  • unemployment: 8.40 → 8.00 -0.40 (2020-12-02 → 2021-06-01)
  • yield_10y: -0.06 → 0.30 +0.37 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.40 → -1.10 -0.70 (2020-12-18 → 2021-06-18)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.90 → -0.80 +0.10 (2020-12-18 → 2021-06-18)
  • fx: 103.23 → 110.92 +7.70 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-25)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2020-12-18 → 2021-06-18)
  • unemployment: 2.90 → 2.80 -0.10 (2020-12-25 → 2021-05-28)
  • yield_10y: 0.06 → 0.05 -0.01 (2021-01-01 → 2021-06-01)

Busiest week: 2021-W09 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W53 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2021-Q1
quarterly board
2021-Q2
quarterly board