Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2020-02

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2020-01daily glanceweekly archive →2020-03 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2020-02 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W06: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
China
stagflationary · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W08: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×3 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
China
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
  • M3 ×1 policy_easing
  • M11 ×1 china_credit_impulse
Euro area
  • M13 ×2 contraction_easing
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.25 → 0.20 -0.05 (2020-02-01 → 2020-02-13)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.34 → 2.50 +0.16 (2020-02-01 → 2020-02-13)
  • fx: 97.39 → 99.26 +1.87 (2020-01-31 → 2020-02-21)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.20 → 50.90 +3.70 (2020-01-03 → 2020-02-03)
  • pmi_svc: 55.00 → 55.50 +0.50 (2020-01-07 → 2020-02-05)
  • policy_rate: 1.75 → 1.75 0.00 (2020-02-02 → 2020-02-23)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.18 → 0.12 -0.06 (2020-01-31 → 2020-02-21)
  • unemployment: 3.50 → 3.60 +0.10 (2020-02-01 → 2020-02-07)
  • yield_10y: 1.51 → 1.46 -0.05 (2020-01-31 → 2020-02-21)
  • yield_2y: 1.33 → 1.34 +0.01 (2020-01-31 → 2020-02-21)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 4.50 → 5.40 +0.90 (2020-01-09 → 2020-02-10)
  • fx: 6.94 → 7.02 +0.09 (2020-01-31 → 2020-02-21)
  • policy_rate: 4.15 → 4.05 -0.10 (2020-01-20 → 2020-02-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.54 +0.03 (2020-01-23 → 2020-02-21)
  • yield_10y: 2.99 → 2.85 -0.15 (2020-01-23 → 2020-02-21)
  • yield_2y: 2.48 → 2.31 -0.17 (2020-01-23 → 2020-02-21)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.40 0.00 (2020-01-31 → 2020-02-21)
  • fx: 1.10 → 1.08 -0.02 (2020-01-31 → 2020-02-21)
  • gdp: 0.30 → -1.00 -1.30 (2020-01-17 → 2020-02-21)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.80 → 49.10 +1.30 (2020-01-24 → 2020-02-21)
  • pmi_svc: 52.20 → 52.80 +0.60 (2020-01-24 → 2020-02-21)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.50 → 0.40 -0.10 (2020-01-24 → 2020-02-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.80 → 0.70 -0.10 (2020-01-24 → 2020-02-21)
  • fx: 108.88 → 111.95 +3.08 (2020-01-31 → 2020-02-21)

Busiest week: 2020-W08 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W06 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-02 vs 2020-01, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-02).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2020-W05

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 1 active
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2020-W06

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2020-W07

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2020-W08

● 5 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M11_china_credit_impulse, M13_contraction_easing, M3_policy_easing, M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stagflationary
contraction · above target · easing
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 3 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change