Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2020-01

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2019-12daily glanceweekly archive →2020-02 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2020-01 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
Japan
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.26 → 0.10 -0.16 (2020-01-01 → 2020-01-14)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.60 → 2.30 -0.30 (2020-01-01 → 2020-01-14)
  • fx: 96.84 → 97.85 +1.01 (2020-01-03 → 2020-01-24)
  • pmi_svc: 53.90 → 55.00 +1.10 (2019-12-04 → 2020-01-07)
  • policy_rate: 1.75 → 1.75 0.00 (2020-01-05 → 2020-01-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.27 → 0.21 -0.06 (2020-01-03 → 2020-01-24)
  • unemployment: 3.60 → 3.50 -0.10 (2020-01-01 → 2020-01-10)
  • yield_10y: 1.80 → 1.70 -0.10 (2020-01-03 → 2020-01-24)
  • yield_2y: 1.53 → 1.49 -0.04 (2020-01-03 → 2020-01-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2019-12-10 → 2020-01-09)
  • fx: 6.96 → 6.94 -0.03 (2020-01-03 → 2020-01-24)
  • gdp: 6.00 → 6.00 0.00 (2019-10-18 → 2020-01-17)
  • policy_rate: 4.15 → 4.15 0.00 (2019-12-20 → 2020-01-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.61 → 0.51 -0.09 (2020-01-03 → 2020-01-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.14 → 2.99 -0.15 (2020-01-03 → 2020-01-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.54 → 2.48 -0.06 (2020-01-03 → 2020-01-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.00 → 1.30 +0.30 (2019-12-18 → 2020-01-17)
  • fx: 1.12 → 1.11 -0.01 (2020-01-03 → 2020-01-24)
  • gdp: -0.30 → 0.30 +0.60 (2019-12-18 → 2020-01-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.30 → 47.80 +1.50 (2020-01-02 → 2020-01-24)
  • pmi_svc: 52.40 → 52.20 -0.20 (2019-12-16 → 2020-01-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-12-12 → 2020-01-23)
  • unemployment: 7.50 → 7.50 0.00 (2019-11-29 → 2020-01-09)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2019-12-20 → 2020-01-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.80 +0.30 (2019-12-20 → 2020-01-24)
  • fx: 108.54 → 109.55 +1.01 (2020-01-03 → 2020-01-24)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-10-31 → 2020-01-21)

Busiest week: 2020-W01 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W04 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-01 vs 2019-12, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-01).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2020-W01

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M1_inflation_surprise_up, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2020-W02

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M1_inflation_surprise_up, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2020-W03

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M1_inflation_surprise_up, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2020-W04

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change