Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2020-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2020-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-H2 vs 2020-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → deflation watch
W33: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W37: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W44: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W46: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W49: goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall · W50: disinflationary stall → deflation watch
Euro area
deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation
W39: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×17 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×8 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×8 inflation_surprise_down
China
  • M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M5 ×12 growth_acceleration
  • M13 ×3 contraction_easing
Japan
  • M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.58 → 0.20 -0.38 (2020-07-01 → 2020-12-10)
  • core_pce: 1.21 → 1.40 +0.19 (2020-07-01 → 2020-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.00 → 1.20 +0.20 (2020-07-01 → 2020-12-10)
  • fx: 97.32 → 90.33 -6.99 (2020-07-02 → 2020-12-24)
  • gdp: 34.90 → 33.40 -1.50 (2020-07-01 → 2020-12-22)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.60 → 57.50 +4.90 (2020-07-01 → 2020-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 45.40 → 55.90 +10.50 (2020-06-03 → 2020-12-03)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2020-07-05 → 2020-12-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.52 → 0.81 +0.29 (2020-07-02 → 2020-12-24)
  • unemployment: 11.10 → 6.70 -4.40 (2020-07-02 → 2020-12-04)
  • yield_10y: 0.68 → 0.94 +0.26 (2020-07-02 → 2020-12-24)
  • yield_2y: 0.16 → 0.13 -0.03 (2020-07-02 → 2020-12-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.40 → -0.50 -2.90 (2020-06-10 → 2020-12-09)
  • fx: 7.07 → 6.53 -0.54 (2020-07-03 → 2020-12-25)
  • gdp: -6.80 → 4.90 +11.70 (2020-04-17 → 2020-10-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.10 → 51.90 +0.80 (2020-07-01 → 2020-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 54.40 → 56.40 +2.00 (2020-06-30 → 2020-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2020-06-22 → 2020-12-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.60 → 0.42 -0.18 (2020-07-03 → 2020-12-25)
  • unemployment: 5.70 → 5.20 -0.50 (2020-07-01 → 2020-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 2.90 → 3.19 +0.29 (2020-07-03 → 2020-12-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.29 → 2.77 +0.47 (2020-07-03 → 2020-12-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → -0.30 -0.60 (2020-06-30 → 2020-12-17)
  • fx: 1.12 → 1.22 +0.09 (2020-07-03 → 2020-12-25)
  • gdp: 0.30 → -0.30 -0.60 (2020-06-30 → 2020-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.40 → 55.50 +8.10 (2020-07-01 → 2020-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 48.30 → 47.30 -1.00 (2020-07-03 → 2020-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2020-06-04 → 2020-12-10)
  • unemployment: 7.40 → 8.40 +1.00 (2020-07-02 → 2020-12-02)
  • yield_10y: 0.22 → -0.09 -0.31 (2020-07-01 → 2020-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → -0.40 -0.50 (2020-06-19 → 2020-12-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.10 → -0.90 -1.00 (2020-06-19 → 2020-12-18)
  • fx: 107.50 → 103.65 -3.84 (2020-07-03 → 2020-12-25)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2020-06-16 → 2020-12-18)
  • unemployment: 3.00 → 2.90 -0.10 (2020-06-30 → 2020-12-25)
  • yield_10y: 0.01 → 0.02 +0.01 (2020-07-01 → 2020-12-01)

Busiest week: 2020-W39 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W49 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2020-Q3
quarterly board
2020-Q4
quarterly board