Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2020-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2020-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-H1 vs 2019-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall → deflation watch
W06: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W14: stall-speed, at target → deflation watch · W15: deflation watch → stall-speed, at target · W18: stall-speed, at target → deflation watch · W23: deflation watch → disinflationary stall · W24: disinflationary stall → deflation watch
China
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W05: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary · W09: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle · W24: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
disinflationary stall → deflation watch
W08: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W10: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W18: disinflationary stall → deflation watch
Japan
disinflationary stall → deflation watch
W12: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×14 growth_slowdown
  • M2 ×9 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×7 inflation_surprise_up
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
China
  • M3 ×8 policy_easing
  • M11 ×8 china_credit_impulse
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M13 ×10 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×9 yield_spike
  • M6 ×3 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M2 ×9 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up
  • M9 ×5 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.26 → -0.10 -0.36 (2020-01-01 → 2020-06-10)
  • core_pce: 1.59 → 1.00 -0.59 (2020-01-01 → 2020-06-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.60 → 0.10 -2.50 (2020-01-01 → 2020-06-10)
  • fx: 96.84 → 97.50 +0.66 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-26)
  • gdp: -5.20 → -5.00 +0.20 (2020-01-01 → 2020-06-25)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.20 → 43.10 -4.10 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 53.90 → 45.40 -8.50 (2019-12-04 → 2020-06-03)
  • policy_rate: 1.75 → 0.25 -1.50 (2020-01-05 → 2020-06-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.27 → 0.47 +0.20 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-26)
  • unemployment: 3.60 → 13.30 +9.70 (2020-01-01 → 2020-06-05)
  • yield_10y: 1.80 → 0.64 -1.16 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-26)
  • yield_2y: 1.53 → 0.17 -1.36 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 4.50 → 2.40 -2.10 (2019-12-10 → 2020-06-10)
  • fx: 6.96 → 7.08 +0.11 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-26)
  • gdp: 6.00 → -6.80 -12.80 (2019-10-18 → 2020-04-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.00 → 50.90 +0.90 (2020-01-01 → 2020-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 53.50 → 53.60 +0.10 (2019-12-31 → 2020-05-31)
  • policy_rate: 4.15 → 3.85 -0.30 (2019-12-20 → 2020-06-22)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.61 → 0.56 -0.04 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-28)
  • unemployment: 5.30 → 5.70 +0.40 (2020-01-01 → 2020-06-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.14 → 2.84 -0.30 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.54 → 2.28 -0.26 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.00 → 0.10 -0.90 (2019-12-18 → 2020-06-17)
  • fx: 1.12 → 1.12 +0.01 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-26)
  • gdp: -0.30 → -0.10 +0.20 (2019-12-18 → 2020-06-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.30 → 46.90 +0.60 (2020-01-02 → 2020-06-23)
  • pmi_svc: 52.40 → 47.30 -5.10 (2019-12-16 → 2020-06-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-12-12 → 2020-06-04)
  • unemployment: 7.50 → 7.30 -0.20 (2019-11-29 → 2020-06-03)
  • yield_10y: 0.32 → 0.35 +0.04 (2020-01-01 → 2020-06-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.50 → 0.10 -0.40 (2019-12-20 → 2020-06-19)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.10 -0.40 (2019-12-20 → 2020-06-19)
  • fx: 108.54 → 107.15 -1.39 (2020-01-03 → 2020-06-26)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-10-31 → 2020-06-16)
  • unemployment: 2.20 → 2.80 +0.60 (2019-12-27 → 2020-05-29)
  • yield_10y: -0.07 → 0.03 +0.10 (2020-01-01 → 2020-06-01)

Busiest week: 2020-W09 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W04 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2020-Q1
quarterly board
2020-Q2
quarterly board