Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2019-12

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2019-11daily glanceweekly archive →2020-01 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2019-12 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
deflation watch → disinflationary stall
W51: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M13 ×1 contraction_easing
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M6 ×2 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×1 contraction_easing
Japan
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.18 → 0.20 +0.02 (2019-12-01 → 2019-12-11)
  • core_pce: 1.54 → 1.60 +0.06 (2019-12-01 → 2019-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.32 → 2.10 -0.22 (2019-12-01 → 2019-12-11)
  • fx: 98.27 → 96.92 -1.35 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)
  • gdp: 2.10 → 2.10 0.00 (2019-11-27 → 2019-12-20)
  • pmi_mfg: 48.30 → 48.10 -0.20 (2019-11-01 → 2019-12-02)
  • pmi_svc: 54.70 → 53.90 -0.80 (2019-11-05 → 2019-12-04)
  • policy_rate: 1.75 → 1.75 0.00 (2019-12-01 → 2019-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.17 → 0.29 +0.12 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)
  • unemployment: 3.60 → 3.50 -0.10 (2019-12-01 → 2019-12-06)
  • yield_10y: 1.78 → 1.88 +0.10 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 1.61 → 1.59 -0.02 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 3.80 → 4.50 +0.70 (2019-11-09 → 2019-12-10)
  • fx: 7.03 → 7.00 -0.04 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)
  • policy_rate: 4.15 → 4.15 0.00 (2019-11-20 → 2019-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.48 → 0.64 +0.15 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)
  • yield_10y: 3.17 → 3.13 -0.04 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.68 → 2.49 -0.19 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-18)
  • fx: 1.10 → 1.11 +0.01 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)
  • gdp: 0.10 → -0.30 -0.40 (2019-11-15 → 2019-12-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.60 → 45.90 -0.70 (2019-11-22 → 2019-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 51.50 → 52.40 +0.90 (2019-11-22 → 2019-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-10-24 → 2019-12-12)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.50 +0.20 (2019-11-22 → 2019-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.50 +0.30 (2019-11-22 → 2019-12-20)
  • fx: 109.51 → 109.54 +0.03 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)
  • unemployment: 2.40 → 2.20 -0.20 (2019-11-29 → 2019-12-27)

Busiest week: 2019-W48 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W49 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-12 vs 2019-11, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-12).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2019-W48

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W49

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W50

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W51

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2019-W52

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active