Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2019-10

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2019-09daily glanceweekly archive →2019-11 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2019-10 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
China
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.10 -0.12 (2019-10-01 → 2019-10-10)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.73 → 1.70 -0.03 (2019-10-01 → 2019-10-10)
  • fx: 98.81 → 97.83 -0.98 (2019-10-04 → 2019-10-25)
  • policy_rate: 2.00 → 2.00 0.00 (2019-10-06 → 2019-10-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.12 → 0.17 +0.05 (2019-10-04 → 2019-10-25)
  • yield_10y: 1.52 → 1.80 +0.28 (2019-10-04 → 2019-10-25)
  • yield_2y: 1.40 → 1.63 +0.23 (2019-10-04 → 2019-10-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.80 → 3.00 +0.20 (2019-09-10 → 2019-10-15)
  • fx: 7.15 → 7.07 -0.08 (2019-10-04 → 2019-10-25)
  • gdp: 6.20 → 6.00 -0.20 (2019-07-15 → 2019-10-18)
  • policy_rate: 4.20 → 4.20 0.00 (2019-09-20 → 2019-10-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.42 → 0.51 +0.09 (2019-09-30 → 2019-10-25)
  • yield_10y: 3.14 → 3.24 +0.10 (2019-09-30 → 2019-10-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.72 → 2.72 +0.00 (2019-09-30 → 2019-10-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 0.80 -0.10 (2019-10-01 → 2019-10-16)
  • fx: 1.10 → 1.11 +0.01 (2019-10-04 → 2019-10-25)
  • gdp: 0.10 → 0.20 +0.10 (2019-09-18 → 2019-10-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 45.70 → 45.70 0.00 (2019-10-01 → 2019-10-24)
  • pmi_svc: 51.60 → 51.80 +0.20 (2019-10-03 → 2019-10-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-09-12 → 2019-10-24)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.40 → 0.30 -0.10 (2019-09-20 → 2019-10-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2019-09-20 → 2019-10-18)
  • fx: 106.83 → 108.61 +1.78 (2019-10-04 → 2019-10-25)

Busiest week: 2019-W40 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W40 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-10 vs 2019-09, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-10).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2019-W40

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W41

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W42

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W43

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change