Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2019-07

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2019-06daily glanceweekly archive →2019-08 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2019-07 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
disinflationary stall · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
Euro area
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.30 +0.09 (2019-07-01 → 2019-07-11)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.83 → 1.60 -0.23 (2019-07-01 → 2019-07-11)
  • fx: 97.25 → 98.01 +0.76 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)
  • gdp: 4.80 → 2.10 -2.70 (2019-07-01 → 2019-07-26)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2019-07-07 → 2019-07-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.17 → 0.22 +0.05 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.04 → 2.08 +0.04 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)
  • yield_2y: 1.87 → 1.86 -0.01 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 2.70 0.00 (2019-06-12 → 2019-07-10)
  • fx: 6.87 → 6.87 +0.00 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)
  • gdp: 6.40 → 6.20 -0.20 (2019-04-17 → 2019-07-15)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 0.40 +0.04 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.17 → 3.17 -0.00 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.82 → 2.77 -0.05 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 1.30 +0.10 (2019-06-28 → 2019-07-17)
  • fx: 1.13 → 1.11 -0.01 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)
  • gdp: 0.10 → 0.20 +0.10 (2019-06-18 → 2019-07-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.60 → 46.40 -1.20 (2019-07-01 → 2019-07-24)
  • pmi_svc: 53.60 → 53.30 -0.30 (2019-07-03 → 2019-07-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-06-06 → 2019-07-25)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2019-06-21 → 2019-07-19)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.70 0.00 (2019-06-21 → 2019-07-19)
  • fx: 107.81 → 108.67 +0.86 (2019-07-05 → 2019-07-26)

Busiest week: 2019-W27 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W29 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-07 vs 2019-06, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-07).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2019-W27

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2019-W28

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M2_inflation_surprise_down

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2019-W29

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2019-W30

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change