Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2019-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2019-07daily glanceweekly archive →2019-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2019-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle
W32: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M3 ×1 policy_easing
  • M11 ×1 china_credit_impulse
Euro area
  • M13 ×1 contraction_easing
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.23 → 0.30 +0.07 (2019-08-01 → 2019-08-13)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.74 → 1.80 +0.06 (2019-08-01 → 2019-08-13)
  • fx: 98.10 → 97.64 -0.46 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-23)
  • pmi_svc: 55.10 → 53.70 -1.40 (2019-07-03 → 2019-08-05)
  • policy_rate: 2.25 → 2.25 0.00 (2019-08-04 → 2019-08-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.14 → 0.01 -0.13 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-23)
  • yield_10y: 1.86 → 1.52 -0.34 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-23)
  • yield_2y: 1.72 → 1.51 -0.21 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 2.80 +0.10 (2019-07-10 → 2019-08-09)
  • fx: 6.90 → 7.08 +0.18 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-23)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.25 -0.06 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.34 → 0.37 +0.03 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.09 → 3.06 -0.03 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.75 → 2.69 -0.05 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.10 → 1.00 -0.10 (2019-07-31 → 2019-08-19)
  • fx: 1.11 → 1.11 +0.00 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-23)
  • gdp: 0.20 → -0.50 -0.70 (2019-07-17 → 2019-08-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.50 → 47.00 +0.50 (2019-08-01 → 2019-08-22)
  • pmi_svc: 53.30 → 53.40 +0.10 (2019-07-24 → 2019-08-22)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.40 +0.10 (2019-07-19 → 2019-08-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.50 -0.20 (2019-07-19 → 2019-08-23)
  • fx: 107.43 → 106.47 -0.96 (2019-08-02 → 2019-08-23)

Busiest week: 2019-W34 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W31 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-08 vs 2019-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2019-W31

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2019-W32

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2019-W33

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2019-W34

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M11_china_credit_impulse, M13_contraction_easing, M3_policy_easing

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · easing
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change