Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2019-02

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2019-01daily glanceweekly archive →2019-03 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2019-02 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.16 → 0.20 +0.04 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-13)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.52 → 1.60 +0.08 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-13)
  • fx: 95.58 → 96.51 +0.93 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-22)
  • pmi_svc: 57.60 → 56.70 -0.90 (2019-01-07 → 2019-02-05)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2019-02-03 → 2019-02-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.18 → 0.17 -0.01 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-22)
  • yield_10y: 2.70 → 2.65 -0.05 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-22)
  • yield_2y: 2.52 → 2.48 -0.04 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-22)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 1.70 -0.20 (2019-01-10 → 2019-02-15)
  • fx: 6.70 → 6.72 +0.02 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-22)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2019-02-03 → 2019-02-22)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.52 → 0.62 +0.10 (2019-02-03 → 2019-02-22)
  • yield_10y: 3.10 → 3.15 +0.05 (2019-02-03 → 2019-02-22)
  • yield_2y: 2.57 → 2.53 -0.05 (2019-02-03 → 2019-02-22)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.40 0.00 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-22)
  • fx: 1.14 → 1.13 -0.01 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-22)
  • gdp: 0.00 → -1.00 -1.00 (2019-01-17 → 2019-02-22)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.50 → 49.20 -1.30 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-21)
  • pmi_svc: 50.80 → 52.30 +1.50 (2019-01-24 → 2019-02-21)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.30 +0.20 (2019-01-18 → 2019-02-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2019-01-18 → 2019-02-22)
  • fx: 108.84 → 110.71 +1.86 (2019-02-01 → 2019-02-22)

Busiest week: 2019-W08 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W05 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-02 vs 2019-01, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-02).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2019-W05

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W06

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W07

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W08

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active