Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2019-03

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2019-02daily glanceweekly archive →2019-04 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2019-03 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W12: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M6 ×2 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.15 → 0.10 -0.05 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-12)
  • core_pce: 1.62 → 1.80 +0.18 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.88 → 1.50 -0.38 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-12)
  • fx: 96.53 → 97.28 +0.75 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
  • gdp: 2.60 → 2.20 -0.40 (2019-02-28 → 2019-03-28)
  • pmi_svc: 56.70 → 59.70 +3.00 (2019-02-05 → 2019-03-05)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2019-03-03 → 2019-03-31)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.21 → 0.14 -0.07 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
  • unemployment: 3.80 → 3.80 0.00 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-08)
  • yield_10y: 2.76 → 2.41 -0.35 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
  • yield_2y: 2.55 → 2.27 -0.28 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 1.50 -0.20 (2019-02-15 → 2019-03-09)
  • fx: 6.69 → 6.74 +0.05 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
  • pmi_svc: 54.30 → 54.80 +0.50 (2019-02-28 → 2019-03-31)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.58 → 0.48 -0.10 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
  • yield_10y: 3.19 → 3.07 -0.12 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
  • yield_2y: 2.60 → 2.59 -0.02 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.50 0.00 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-15)
  • fx: 1.14 → 1.12 -0.01 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
  • gdp: -1.00 → 0.30 +1.30 (2019-02-22 → 2019-03-15)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.30 → 47.60 -1.70 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-22)
  • pmi_svc: 52.30 → 52.70 +0.40 (2019-02-21 → 2019-03-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-01-24 → 2019-03-07)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2019-02-22 → 2019-03-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.20 0.00 (2019-02-22 → 2019-03-22)
  • fx: 111.36 → 110.64 -0.72 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-01-23 → 2019-03-15)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.30 -0.20 (2019-03-01 → 2019-03-29)

Busiest week: 2019-W09 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W09 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-03 vs 2019-02, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-03).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2019-W09

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2019-W10

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2019-W11

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2019-W12

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2019-W13

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change