Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2019-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2019-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-H2 vs 2019-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle
W32: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×5 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M3 ×4 policy_easing
  • M11 ×4 china_credit_impulse
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.20 -0.01 (2019-07-01 → 2019-12-11)
  • core_pce: 1.64 → 1.60 -0.04 (2019-07-01 → 2019-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.83 → 2.10 +0.27 (2019-07-01 → 2019-12-11)
  • fx: 97.25 → 96.92 -0.33 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-27)
  • gdp: 4.80 → 2.10 -2.70 (2019-07-01 → 2019-12-20)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.70 → 48.10 -3.60 (2019-07-01 → 2019-12-02)
  • pmi_svc: 55.10 → 53.90 -1.20 (2019-07-03 → 2019-12-04)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 1.75 -0.75 (2019-07-07 → 2019-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.17 → 0.29 +0.12 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-27)
  • unemployment: 3.70 → 3.50 -0.20 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-06)
  • yield_10y: 2.04 → 1.88 -0.16 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 1.87 → 1.59 -0.28 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 4.50 +1.80 (2019-06-12 → 2019-12-10)
  • fx: 6.87 → 7.00 +0.13 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-27)
  • gdp: 6.40 → 6.00 -0.40 (2019-04-17 → 2019-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.70 → 50.20 +0.50 (2019-07-01 → 2019-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 54.20 → 54.40 +0.20 (2019-06-30 → 2019-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.15 -0.16 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 0.64 +0.29 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-27)
  • unemployment: 5.30 → 5.20 -0.10 (2019-07-01 → 2019-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.17 → 3.13 -0.04 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.82 → 2.49 -0.33 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 1.00 -0.20 (2019-06-28 → 2019-12-18)
  • fx: 1.13 → 1.11 -0.02 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-27)
  • gdp: 0.10 → -0.30 -0.40 (2019-06-18 → 2019-12-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.60 → 45.90 -1.70 (2019-07-01 → 2019-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 53.60 → 52.40 -1.20 (2019-07-03 → 2019-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-06-06 → 2019-12-12)
  • unemployment: 7.50 → 7.50 0.00 (2019-07-01 → 2019-11-29)
  • yield_10y: 0.36 → 0.37 +0.01 (2019-07-01 → 2019-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.50 +0.20 (2019-06-21 → 2019-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.50 -0.20 (2019-06-21 → 2019-12-20)
  • fx: 107.81 → 109.54 +1.73 (2019-07-05 → 2019-12-27)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-06-20 → 2019-10-31)
  • unemployment: 2.40 → 2.20 -0.20 (2019-06-28 → 2019-12-27)
  • yield_10y: -0.16 → -0.03 +0.14 (2019-07-01 → 2019-12-01)

Busiest week: 2019-W37 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W31 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2019-Q3
quarterly board
2019-Q4
quarterly board