Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2019-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2019-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-H1 vs 2018-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W24: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W12: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M6 ×3 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M1 ×8 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.27 → 0.10 -0.17 (2019-01-01 → 2019-06-12)
  • core_pce: 1.84 → 1.60 -0.24 (2019-01-01 → 2019-06-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.49 → 1.80 +0.31 (2019-01-01 → 2019-06-12)
  • fx: 96.19 → 96.13 -0.06 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
  • gdp: 2.50 → 3.10 +0.60 (2019-01-01 → 2019-06-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 54.30 → 52.10 -2.20 (2019-01-03 → 2019-06-03)
  • pmi_svc: 60.70 → 56.90 -3.80 (2018-12-06 → 2019-06-05)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2019-01-06 → 2019-06-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.17 → 0.25 +0.08 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
  • unemployment: 3.90 → 3.60 -0.30 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.67 → 2.00 -0.67 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.50 → 1.75 -0.75 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 2.70 +0.50 (2018-12-09 → 2019-06-12)
  • fx: 6.87 → 6.87 -0.00 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
  • gdp: 6.50 → 6.40 -0.10 (2018-10-19 → 2019-04-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.50 → 49.40 -0.10 (2019-01-01 → 2019-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 53.80 → 54.20 +0.40 (2018-12-31 → 2019-06-30)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.54 → 0.38 -0.17 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
  • unemployment: 5.10 → 5.10 0.00 (2019-01-01 → 2019-06-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.15 → 3.23 +0.07 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.61 → 2.85 +0.24 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 1.20 -0.40 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
  • fx: 1.14 → 1.14 -0.00 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
  • gdp: -0.20 → 0.10 +0.30 (2018-12-17 → 2019-06-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.40 → 47.80 -3.60 (2019-01-02 → 2019-06-21)
  • pmi_svc: 51.20 → 53.40 +2.20 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-21)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-12-13 → 2019-06-06)
  • unemployment: 8.10 → 7.60 -0.50 (2018-11-30 → 2019-06-04)
  • yield_10y: 1.20 → 0.57 -0.63 (2019-01-01 → 2019-06-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.30 +0.20 (2018-12-21 → 2019-06-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.80 → 0.70 -0.10 (2018-12-21 → 2019-06-21)
  • fx: 107.81 → 107.75 -0.06 (2019-01-04 → 2019-06-28)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-12-20 → 2019-06-20)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.40 -0.10 (2018-12-28 → 2019-06-28)
  • yield_10y: 0.00 → -0.17 -0.17 (2019-01-01 → 2019-06-01)

Busiest week: 2019-W08 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W02 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2019-Q1
quarterly board
2019-Q2
quarterly board