Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-03

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2018-02daily glanceweekly archive →2018-04 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2018-03 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W10: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.20 -0.02 (2018-03-01 → 2018-03-13)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.33 → 2.20 -0.13 (2018-03-01 → 2018-03-13)
  • pmi_svc: 59.90 → 59.50 -0.40 (2018-02-05 → 2018-03-05)
  • policy_rate: 1.50 → 1.75 +0.25 (2018-03-04 → 2018-03-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.61 → 0.54 -0.07 (2018-03-02 → 2018-03-23)
  • unemployment: 4.00 → 4.10 +0.10 (2018-03-01 → 2018-03-09)
  • yield_10y: 2.86 → 2.82 -0.04 (2018-03-02 → 2018-03-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.25 → 2.28 +0.03 (2018-03-02 → 2018-03-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 2.90 +1.40 (2018-02-09 → 2018-03-09)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2018-03-02 → 2018-03-23)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.47 → 0.30 -0.16 (2018-03-02 → 2018-03-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.84 → 3.70 -0.13 (2018-03-02 → 2018-03-23)
  • yield_2y: 3.37 → 3.40 +0.03 (2018-03-02 → 2018-03-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 1.10 -0.10 (2018-02-28 → 2018-03-16)
  • gdp: -0.90 → 0.20 +1.10 (2018-02-23 → 2018-03-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.60 → 56.60 -2.00 (2018-03-01 → 2018-03-22)
  • pmi_svc: 56.70 → 55.00 -1.70 (2018-02-21 → 2018-03-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-01-25 → 2018-03-08)
Japan
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-01-23 → 2018-03-09)

Busiest week: 2018-W09 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W09 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-03 vs 2018-02, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-03).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W09

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2018-W10

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2018-W11

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2018-W12

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change