Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2018-01

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2017-12daily glanceweekly archive →2018-02 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2018-01 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.34 → 0.30 -0.04 (2018-01-01 → 2018-01-12)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.15 → 2.10 -0.05 (2018-01-01 → 2018-01-12)
  • gdp: 3.30 → 2.60 -0.70 (2018-01-01 → 2018-01-26)
  • policy_rate: 1.50 → 1.50 0.00 (2018-01-07 → 2018-01-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.53 +0.02 (2018-01-05 → 2018-01-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.47 → 2.66 +0.19 (2018-01-05 → 2018-01-26)
  • yield_2y: 1.96 → 2.13 +0.17 (2018-01-05 → 2018-01-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 1.80 +0.10 (2017-12-09 → 2018-01-10)
  • gdp: 6.80 → 6.80 0.00 (2017-10-19 → 2018-01-18)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2018-01-05 → 2018-01-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.29 → 0.35 +0.06 (2018-01-05 → 2018-01-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.92 → 3.94 +0.02 (2018-01-05 → 2018-01-26)
  • yield_2y: 3.63 → 3.58 -0.05 (2018-01-05 → 2018-01-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.40 0.00 (2018-01-05 → 2018-01-17)
  • gdp: 0.10 → 0.40 +0.30 (2017-12-18 → 2018-01-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 60.60 → 59.60 -1.00 (2018-01-02 → 2018-01-24)
  • pmi_svc: 56.60 → 57.60 +1.00 (2018-01-04 → 2018-01-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-12-14 → 2018-01-25)
  • unemployment: 8.80 → 8.70 -0.10 (2017-11-30 → 2018-01-09)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2017-12-26 → 2018-01-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 1.00 +0.40 (2017-12-26 → 2018-01-26)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-12-21 → 2018-01-23)

Busiest week: 2018-W01 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W02 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-01 vs 2017-12, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-01).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2018-W01

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 2 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W02

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W03

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2018-W04

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change