Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2018-H2

Half-year aggregate · 27 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2018-H2 — 27 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-H2 vs 2018-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 27 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target
W31: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W32: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W35: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W37: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W40: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target
W47: expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
China
  • M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M9 ×8 yield_spike
Japan
  • M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.12 → 0.20 +0.08 (2018-07-01 → 2018-12-12)
  • core_pce: 2.00 → 1.90 -0.10 (2018-07-01 → 2018-12-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.85 → 2.20 -0.65 (2018-07-01 → 2018-12-12)
  • fx: 94.63 → 96.39 +1.76 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-28)
  • gdp: 2.50 → 3.40 +0.90 (2018-07-01 → 2018-12-21)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.70 → 58.80 +0.10 (2018-06-01 → 2018-12-03)
  • pmi_svc: 58.60 → 60.70 +2.10 (2018-06-05 → 2018-12-06)
  • policy_rate: 2.00 → 2.50 +0.50 (2018-07-01 → 2018-12-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.33 → 0.20 -0.13 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-28)
  • unemployment: 3.80 → 3.70 -0.10 (2018-07-01 → 2018-12-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.85 → 2.72 -0.13 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.52 → 2.52 0.00 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.80 → 2.20 +0.40 (2018-06-09 → 2018-12-09)
  • fx: 6.63 → 6.87 +0.24 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-28)
  • gdp: 6.80 → 6.50 -0.30 (2018-04-17 → 2018-10-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.20 → 49.40 -1.80 (2018-07-01 → 2018-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 55.00 → 53.40 -1.60 (2018-06-30 → 2018-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.22 → 0.52 +0.30 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-30)
  • unemployment: 5.10 → 4.90 -0.20 (2018-07-01 → 2018-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.48 → 3.23 -0.25 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-30)
  • yield_2y: 3.26 → 2.71 -0.55 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-30)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 1.90 -0.10 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-17)
  • fx: 1.16 → 1.14 -0.01 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-28)
  • gdp: 0.50 → -0.20 -0.70 (2018-06-15 → 2018-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 55.00 → 51.40 -3.60 (2018-06-22 → 2018-12-14)
  • pmi_svc: 55.00 → 51.40 -3.60 (2018-06-22 → 2018-12-14)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-06-14 → 2018-12-13)
  • unemployment: 8.50 → 8.10 -0.40 (2018-05-31 → 2018-11-30)
  • yield_10y: 1.20 → 1.21 +0.01 (2018-07-01 → 2018-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2018-06-22 → 2018-12-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.80 +0.10 (2018-06-22 → 2018-12-21)
  • fx: 110.49 → 110.86 +0.37 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-28)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-06-15 → 2018-12-20)
  • unemployment: 2.20 → 2.50 +0.30 (2018-06-29 → 2018-12-28)
  • yield_10y: 0.06 → -0.01 -0.07 (2018-07-01 → 2018-12-01)

Busiest week: 2018-W38 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W35 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2018-Q3
quarterly board
2018-Q4
quarterly board