Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2018-H1

Half-year aggregate · 25 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2018-H1 — 25 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-H1 vs 2017-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 25 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W18: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W19: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W22: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

expansion, at target · held all period

Japan

disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up

China

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×12 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.34 → 0.20 -0.14 (2018-01-01 → 2018-06-12)
core_pce: 1.63 → 1.94 +0.31 (2018-01-01 → 2018-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.15 → 2.80 +0.65 (2018-01-01 → 2018-06-12)
fx: 94.19 → 94.52 +0.33 (2018-05-25 → 2018-06-22)
gdp: 3.30 → 2.20 -1.10 (2018-01-01 → 2018-05-30)
pmi_mfg: 59.70 → 58.70 -1.00 (2018-01-03 → 2018-06-01)
pmi_svc: 55.90 → 58.60 +2.70 (2018-01-05 → 2018-06-05)
policy_rate: 1.50 → 2.00 +0.50 (2018-01-07 → 2018-06-24)
slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.34 -0.17 (2018-01-05 → 2018-06-22)
unemployment: 4.10 → 4.00 -0.10 (2018-01-05 → 2018-06-01)
yield_10y: 2.47 → 2.90 +0.43 (2018-01-05 → 2018-06-22)
yield_2y: 1.96 → 2.56 +0.60 (2018-01-05 → 2018-06-22)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 1.80 +0.10 (2017-12-09 → 2018-06-09)
fx: 6.38 → 6.49 +0.12 (2018-05-25 → 2018-06-22)
gdp: 6.80 → 6.80 0.00 (2017-10-19 → 2018-04-17)
pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 51.50 +0.20 (2018-01-01 → 2018-06-01)
pmi_svc: 55.00 → 54.90 -0.10 (2017-12-31 → 2018-05-31)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.31 +0.01 (2018-01-05 → 2018-06-22)
slope_2s10s: 0.29 → 0.20 -0.09 (2018-01-05 → 2018-06-22)
unemployment: 5.00 → 4.80 -0.20 (2018-01-01 → 2018-06-01)
yield_10y: 3.92 → 3.56 -0.36 (2018-01-05 → 2018-06-22)
yield_2y: 3.63 → 3.36 -0.27 (2018-01-05 → 2018-06-22)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.90 +0.50 (2018-01-05 → 2018-06-15)
fx: 1.17 → 1.16 -0.01 (2018-05-25 → 2018-06-22)
gdp: 0.10 → 0.50 +0.40 (2017-12-18 → 2018-06-15)
pmi_mfg: 60.60 → 55.00 -5.60 (2018-01-02 → 2018-06-22)
pmi_svc: 56.60 → 55.00 -1.60 (2018-01-04 → 2018-06-22)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-12-14 → 2018-06-14)
unemployment: 8.80 → 8.50 -0.30 (2017-11-30 → 2018-05-31)
yield_10y: 1.03 → 1.29 +0.26 (2018-01-01 → 2018-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2017-12-26 → 2018-06-22)
cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 0.70 +0.10 (2017-12-26 → 2018-06-22)
fx: 109.31 → 109.95 +0.64 (2018-05-25 → 2018-06-22)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-12-21 → 2018-06-15)
unemployment: 2.70 → 2.50 -0.20 (2017-12-26 → 2018-05-29)
yield_10y: 0.08 → 0.03 -0.05 (2018-01-01 → 2018-06-01)

Busiest week: 2018-W01 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W05 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose