Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2017-09

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2017-08daily glanceweekly archive →2017-10 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2017-09 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
expansion, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.11 → 0.20 +0.09 (2017-09-01 → 2017-09-14)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.18 → 1.90 -0.28 (2017-09-01 → 2017-09-14)
  • pmi_svc: 53.90 → 55.30 +1.40 (2017-08-03 → 2017-09-06)
  • policy_rate: 1.25 → 1.25 0.00 (2017-09-03 → 2017-09-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.81 → 0.80 -0.01 (2017-09-01 → 2017-09-22)
  • yield_10y: 2.16 → 2.26 +0.10 (2017-09-01 → 2017-09-22)
  • yield_2y: 1.35 → 1.46 +0.11 (2017-09-01 → 2017-09-22)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.80 +0.40 (2017-08-09 → 2017-09-09)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-09-01 → 2017-09-22)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.16 → 0.07 -0.09 (2017-09-01 → 2017-09-22)
  • yield_10y: 3.64 → 3.62 -0.01 (2017-09-01 → 2017-09-22)
  • yield_2y: 3.47 → 3.55 +0.07 (2017-09-01 → 2017-09-22)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.50 0.00 (2017-08-31 → 2017-09-18)
  • gdp: -0.50 → 0.30 +0.80 (2017-08-17 → 2017-09-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 57.40 → 58.20 +0.80 (2017-09-01 → 2017-09-22)
  • pmi_svc: 54.90 → 55.60 +0.70 (2017-08-23 → 2017-09-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-07-20 → 2017-09-07)
Japan
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-07-20 → 2017-09-21)

Busiest week: 2017-W38 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W35 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-09 vs 2017-08, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-09).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2017-W35

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W36

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W37

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W38

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change