Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2017-07

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2017-06daily glanceweekly archive →2017-08 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2017-07 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M9 ×5 yield_spike
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.10 +0.01 (2017-07-01 → 2017-07-14)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.73 → 1.60 -0.13 (2017-07-01 → 2017-07-14)
  • gdp: 3.20 → 2.60 -0.60 (2017-07-01 → 2017-07-28)
  • pmi_mfg: 54.90 → 57.80 +2.90 (2017-06-01 → 2017-07-03)
  • pmi_svc: 56.90 → 57.40 +0.50 (2017-06-05 → 2017-07-06)
  • policy_rate: 1.25 → 1.25 0.00 (2017-07-02 → 2017-07-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.93 → 0.96 +0.03 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-28)
  • unemployment: 4.30 → 4.40 +0.10 (2017-07-01 → 2017-07-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.31 → 2.30 -0.01 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-28)
  • yield_2y: 1.38 → 1.34 -0.04 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.50 0.00 (2017-06-09 → 2017-07-10)
  • gdp: 6.90 → 6.90 0.00 (2017-04-17 → 2017-07-17)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.07 → 0.14 +0.07 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.57 → 3.60 +0.04 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-28)
  • yield_2y: 3.49 → 3.46 -0.03 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 1.30 0.00 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-17)
  • gdp: -0.10 → 0.00 +0.10 (2017-06-16 → 2017-07-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 57.30 → 56.80 -0.50 (2017-06-23 → 2017-07-24)
  • pmi_svc: 54.70 → 55.40 +0.70 (2017-06-23 → 2017-07-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-06-08 → 2017-07-20)
  • unemployment: 9.30 → 9.30 0.00 (2017-05-31 → 2017-07-03)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.20 → -0.20 0.00 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.40 0.00 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-28)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-06-16 → 2017-07-20)
  • unemployment: 3.10 → 2.80 -0.30 (2017-06-30 → 2017-07-28)

Busiest week: 2017-W27 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W26 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-07 vs 2017-06, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-07).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2017-W26

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W27

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W28

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W29

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W30

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change