Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2017-03

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2017-02daily glanceweekly archive →2017-04 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2017-03 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
W11: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W10: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: -0.02 → 0.20 +0.22 (2017-03-01 → 2017-03-15)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.44 → 2.70 +0.26 (2017-03-01 → 2017-03-15)
  • policy_rate: 0.75 → 1.00 +0.25 (2017-03-05 → 2017-03-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.17 → 1.14 -0.03 (2017-03-03 → 2017-03-24)
  • unemployment: 4.40 → 4.70 +0.30 (2017-03-01 → 2017-03-10)
  • yield_10y: 2.49 → 2.40 -0.09 (2017-03-03 → 2017-03-24)
  • yield_2y: 1.32 → 1.26 -0.06 (2017-03-03 → 2017-03-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 0.80 -1.70 (2017-02-14 → 2017-03-09)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-03-03 → 2017-03-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.47 → 0.30 -0.17 (2017-03-03 → 2017-03-24)
  • yield_10y: 3.36 → 3.25 -0.10 (2017-03-03 → 2017-03-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.88 → 2.95 +0.07 (2017-03-03 → 2017-03-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.00 0.00 (2017-03-02 → 2017-03-16)
  • gdp: -0.80 → 0.40 +1.20 (2017-02-22 → 2017-03-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 55.40 → 56.20 +0.80 (2017-03-01 → 2017-03-24)
  • pmi_svc: 55.50 → 56.50 +1.00 (2017-03-03 → 2017-03-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-01-19 → 2017-03-09)
Japan
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-01-31 → 2017-03-16)

Busiest week: 2017-W12 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W09 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-03 vs 2017-02, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-03).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2017-W09

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 2 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W10

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W11

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2017-W12

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change