Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2017-01

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2016-12daily glanceweekly archive →2017-02 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2017-01 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall → deflation watch
W04: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.20 -0.02 (2017-01-01 → 2017-01-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.51 → 2.10 -0.41 (2017-01-01 → 2017-01-18)
  • gdp: 2.00 → 1.90 -0.10 (2017-01-01 → 2017-01-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.20 → 54.70 +1.50 (2016-12-01 → 2017-01-03)
  • pmi_svc: 57.20 → 57.20 0.00 (2016-12-05 → 2017-01-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.75 → 0.75 0.00 (2017-01-01 → 2017-01-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.25 → 1.27 +0.02 (2016-12-30 → 2017-01-27)
  • unemployment: 4.70 → 4.70 0.00 (2017-01-01 → 2017-01-06)
  • yield_10y: 2.45 → 2.49 +0.04 (2016-12-30 → 2017-01-27)
  • yield_2y: 1.20 → 1.22 +0.02 (2016-12-30 → 2017-01-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 2.10 -0.20 (2016-12-09 → 2017-01-10)
  • gdp: 6.70 → 6.80 +0.10 (2016-10-19 → 2017-01-20)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-12-30 → 2017-01-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 0.57 +0.26 (2016-12-31 → 2017-01-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.01 → 3.35 +0.34 (2016-12-31 → 2017-01-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.70 → 2.77 +0.07 (2016-12-31 → 2017-01-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 1.10 +0.50 (2016-12-16 → 2017-01-18)
  • gdp: -0.10 → 0.50 +0.60 (2016-12-16 → 2017-01-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 54.90 → 55.10 +0.20 (2016-12-15 → 2017-01-24)
  • pmi_svc: 53.10 → 53.60 +0.50 (2016-12-15 → 2017-01-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2016-12-08 → 2017-01-19)
  • unemployment: 9.80 → 9.80 0.00 (2016-12-01 → 2017-01-09)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.00 -0.10 (2016-12-27 → 2017-01-27)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.30 -0.20 (2016-12-27 → 2017-01-27)

Busiest week: 2016-W52 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W01 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-01 vs 2016-12, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-01).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2016-W52

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2017-W01

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2017-W02

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2017-W03

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2017-W04

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change