Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2017-H2

Half-year aggregate · 27 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2017-H2 — 27 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-H2 vs 2017-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 27 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

expansion, at target · held all period

Japan

deflation watch → disinflationary stall

W39: deflation watch → disinflationary stall · W48: disinflationary stall → deflation watch · W52: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration

China

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
M9 ×5 yield_spike

Japan

no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.10 +0.01 (2017-07-01 → 2017-12-13)
core_pce: 1.50 → 1.50 0.00 (2017-07-01 → 2017-12-22)
cpi_yoy: 1.73 → 2.20 +0.47 (2017-07-01 → 2017-12-13)
gdp: 3.20 → 3.20 0.00 (2017-07-01 → 2017-12-21)
pmi_mfg: 54.90 → 58.20 +3.30 (2017-06-01 → 2017-12-01)
pmi_svc: 56.90 → 57.40 +0.50 (2017-06-05 → 2017-12-05)
policy_rate: 1.25 → 1.50 +0.25 (2017-07-02 → 2017-12-31)
slope_2s10s: 0.93 → 0.51 -0.42 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-29)
unemployment: 4.30 → 4.10 -0.20 (2017-07-01 → 2017-12-08)
yield_10y: 2.31 → 2.40 +0.09 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-29)
yield_2y: 1.38 → 1.89 +0.51 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-29)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.70 +0.20 (2017-06-09 → 2017-12-09)
gdp: 6.90 → 6.80 -0.10 (2017-04-17 → 2017-10-19)
pmi_mfg: 51.40 → 51.60 +0.20 (2017-07-01 → 2017-12-01)
pmi_svc: 54.90 → 55.00 +0.10 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-31)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-29)
slope_2s10s: 0.07 → 0.10 +0.02 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-31)
yield_10y: 3.57 → 3.88 +0.31 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-31)
yield_2y: 3.49 → 3.79 +0.29 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-31)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 1.50 +0.20 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-18)
gdp: -0.10 → 0.10 +0.20 (2017-06-16 → 2017-12-18)
pmi_mfg: 57.30 → 60.60 +3.30 (2017-06-23 → 2017-12-14)
pmi_svc: 54.70 → 56.50 +1.80 (2017-06-23 → 2017-12-14)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-06-08 → 2017-12-14)
unemployment: 9.30 → 8.80 -0.50 (2017-05-31 → 2017-11-30)
yield_10y: 1.21 → 0.88 -0.33 (2017-07-01 → 2017-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.20 → 0.10 +0.30 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-26)
cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.60 +0.20 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-26)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-06-16 → 2017-12-21)
unemployment: 3.10 → 2.70 -0.40 (2017-06-30 → 2017-12-26)
yield_10y: 0.07 → 0.04 -0.03 (2017-07-01 → 2017-12-01)

Busiest week: 2017-W38 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W44 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose