Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2017-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2017-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-H1 vs 2016-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

W05: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

Japan

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W04: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×14 growth_acceleration
M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down
M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

China

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
M10 ×2 curve_inversion

Euro area

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
M9 ×4 yield_spike

Japan

M2 ×8 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.10 -0.12 (2017-01-01 → 2017-06-14)
core_pce: 1.86 → 1.58 -0.28 (2017-01-01 → 2017-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.51 → 1.90 -0.61 (2017-01-01 → 2017-06-14)
gdp: 2.00 → 1.20 -0.80 (2017-01-01 → 2017-05-26)
pmi_mfg: 53.20 → 54.90 +1.70 (2016-12-01 → 2017-06-01)
pmi_svc: 57.20 → 56.90 -0.30 (2016-12-05 → 2017-06-05)
policy_rate: 0.75 → 1.25 +0.50 (2017-01-01 → 2017-06-25)
slope_2s10s: 1.25 → 0.81 -0.44 (2016-12-30 → 2017-06-23)
unemployment: 4.70 → 4.30 -0.40 (2017-01-01 → 2017-06-02)
yield_10y: 2.45 → 2.15 -0.30 (2016-12-30 → 2017-06-23)
yield_2y: 1.20 → 1.34 +0.14 (2016-12-30 → 2017-06-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 1.50 -0.80 (2016-12-09 → 2017-06-09)
gdp: 6.70 → 6.90 +0.20 (2016-10-19 → 2017-04-17)
pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 51.70 +0.40 (2017-01-01 → 2017-06-01)
pmi_svc: 54.50 → 54.50 0.00 (2017-01-01 → 2017-05-31)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-12-30 → 2017-06-23)
slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 0.01 -0.30 (2016-12-31 → 2017-06-23)
yield_10y: 3.01 → 3.55 +0.53 (2016-12-31 → 2017-06-23)
yield_2y: 2.70 → 3.53 +0.83 (2016-12-31 → 2017-06-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 1.40 +0.80 (2016-12-16 → 2017-06-16)
gdp: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2016-12-16 → 2017-06-16)
pmi_mfg: 54.90 → 57.30 +2.40 (2016-12-15 → 2017-06-23)
pmi_svc: 53.10 → 54.70 +1.60 (2016-12-15 → 2017-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2016-12-08 → 2017-06-08)
unemployment: 9.80 → 9.30 -0.50 (2016-12-01 → 2017-05-31)
yield_10y: 1.31 → 1.07 -0.24 (2017-01-01 → 2017-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.10 → -0.30 -0.40 (2016-12-27 → 2017-05-26)
cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.40 -0.10 (2016-12-27 → 2017-05-26)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2016-12-20 → 2017-06-16)
unemployment: 3.10 → 2.80 -0.30 (2016-12-27 → 2017-05-30)
yield_10y: 0.09 → 0.07 -0.01 (2017-01-01 → 2017-06-01)

Busiest week: 2017-W05 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W21 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose