Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2016

Yearly aggregate · 52 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2016 — 52 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2016 vs 2015, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2016).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 52 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall → expansion, at target
W07: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W09: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W26: disinflationary stall → goldilocks / reflation · W35: goldilocks / reflation → stall-speed, at target · W37: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W39: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W48: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×26 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×10 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×17 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×9 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M9 ×8 yield_spike
  • M5 ×7 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M2 ×13 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×9 inflation_surprise_up
  • M3 ×7 policy_easing
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.17 → 0.20 +0.03 (2016-01-01 → 2016-12-15)
  • core_pce: 1.41 → 1.60 +0.19 (2016-01-01 → 2016-12-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.24 → 1.70 +0.46 (2016-01-01 → 2016-12-15)
  • gdp: 2.30 → 3.50 +1.20 (2016-01-01 → 2016-12-22)
  • pmi_mfg: 48.60 → 53.20 +4.60 (2015-12-01 → 2016-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 55.90 → 57.20 +1.30 (2015-12-03 → 2016-12-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.75 +0.25 (2016-01-03 → 2016-12-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.21 → 1.33 +0.12 (2015-12-31 → 2016-12-23)
  • unemployment: 4.80 → 4.60 -0.20 (2016-01-01 → 2016-12-02)
  • yield_10y: 2.27 → 2.55 +0.28 (2015-12-31 → 2016-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 1.06 → 1.22 +0.16 (2015-12-31 → 2016-12-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 2.30 +0.80 (2015-12-09 → 2016-12-09)
  • gdp: 6.90 → 6.70 -0.20 (2015-10-19 → 2016-10-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.40 → 51.40 +2.00 (2016-01-01 → 2016-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 54.40 → 54.70 +0.30 (2016-01-01 → 2016-12-01)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2015-12-31 → 2016-12-23)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.40 → 0.27 -0.13 (2015-12-31 → 2016-12-23)
  • yield_10y: 2.82 → 3.18 +0.36 (2015-12-31 → 2016-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.42 → 2.91 +0.48 (2015-12-31 → 2016-12-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.60 +0.40 (2015-12-16 → 2016-12-16)
  • gdp: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2015-12-16 → 2016-12-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.10 → 54.90 +1.80 (2015-12-16 → 2016-12-15)
  • pmi_svc: 53.90 → 53.10 -0.80 (2015-12-16 → 2016-12-15)
  • policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.00 -0.05 (2015-12-03 → 2016-12-08)
  • unemployment: 10.70 → 9.80 -0.90 (2015-12-01 → 2016-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 1.11 → 1.28 +0.17 (2016-01-01 → 2016-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.90 → 0.20 -0.70 (2015-12-25 → 2016-11-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.10 -0.20 (2015-12-25 → 2016-11-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → -0.10 -0.20 (2015-12-18 → 2016-12-20)
  • unemployment: 3.30 → 3.00 -0.30 (2015-12-25 → 2016-11-29)
  • yield_10y: 0.10 → 0.04 -0.06 (2016-01-01 → 2016-12-01)

Busiest week: 2015-W53 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2016-W18 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2016-Q1
quarterly board
2016-Q2
quarterly board
2016-Q3
quarterly board
2016-Q4
quarterly board