Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2016-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2016-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2016-Q2 vs 2016-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2016-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

disinflationary stall · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation

W25: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×9 growth_acceleration

China

no fires

Euro area

M5 ×1 growth_acceleration

Japan

no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.26 → 0.20 -0.06 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-16)
core_pce: 1.52 → 1.55 +0.03 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.17 → 1.00 -0.17 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-16)
gdp: 1.30 → 0.80 -0.50 (2016-04-01 → 2016-05-27)
pmi_mfg: 51.80 → 51.30 -0.50 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-01)
pmi_svc: 53.40 → 52.90 -0.50 (2016-03-03 → 2016-06-03)
policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2016-04-03 → 2016-06-26)
slope_2s10s: 1.03 → 0.93 -0.10 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-24)
unemployment: 5.10 → 4.70 -0.40 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-03)
yield_10y: 1.79 → 1.57 -0.22 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-24)
yield_2y: 0.76 → 0.64 -0.12 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-24)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 2.00 -0.30 (2016-03-10 → 2016-06-09)
gdp: 6.80 → 6.70 -0.10 (2016-01-19 → 2016-04-15)
pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 50.00 -0.10 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-01)
pmi_svc: 53.80 → 53.10 -0.70 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-01)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-24)
slope_2s10s: 0.65 → 0.37 -0.28 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-24)
yield_10y: 2.84 → 2.88 +0.04 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-24)
yield_2y: 2.19 → 2.51 +0.32 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-24)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2016-03-31 → 2016-06-16)
gdp: 0.20 → 0.40 +0.20 (2016-03-17 → 2016-06-16)
pmi_mfg: 51.60 → 52.60 +1.00 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-23)
pmi_svc: 54.00 → 52.40 -1.60 (2016-03-22 → 2016-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2016-03-10 → 2016-06-02)
unemployment: 10.30 → 10.20 -0.10 (2016-03-01 → 2016-05-31)
yield_10y: 0.96 → 0.88 -0.08 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.60 → 0.50 -0.10 (2016-03-25 → 2016-05-27)
cpi_yoy: 0.20 → -0.30 -0.50 (2016-03-25 → 2016-05-27)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2016-03-15 → 2016-06-16)
unemployment: 3.30 → 3.20 -0.10 (2016-03-29 → 2016-05-31)
yield_10y: -0.09 → -0.23 -0.14 (2016-04-01 → 2016-06-01)

Busiest week: 2016-W25 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2016-W18 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose