Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2016-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2016-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2016-Q4 vs 2016-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2016-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target

W48: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×12 growth_acceleration
M6 ×1 growth_slowdown

China

M5 ×9 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M9 ×4 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.12 → 0.20 +0.08 (2016-10-01 → 2016-12-15)
core_pce: 1.78 → 1.60 -0.18 (2016-10-01 → 2016-12-22)
cpi_yoy: 1.69 → 1.70 +0.01 (2016-10-01 → 2016-12-15)
gdp: 2.20 → 3.50 +1.30 (2016-10-01 → 2016-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 49.40 → 53.20 +3.80 (2016-09-01 → 2016-12-01)
pmi_svc: 51.40 → 57.20 +5.80 (2016-09-06 → 2016-12-05)
policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.75 +0.25 (2016-10-02 → 2016-12-25)
slope_2s10s: 0.83 → 1.33 +0.50 (2016-09-30 → 2016-12-23)
unemployment: 4.90 → 4.60 -0.30 (2016-10-01 → 2016-12-02)
yield_10y: 1.60 → 2.55 +0.95 (2016-09-30 → 2016-12-23)
yield_2y: 0.77 → 1.22 +0.45 (2016-09-30 → 2016-12-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 2.30 +1.00 (2016-09-09 → 2016-12-09)
gdp: 6.70 → 6.70 0.00 (2016-07-15 → 2016-10-19)
pmi_mfg: 51.20 → 51.40 +0.20 (2016-10-01 → 2016-12-01)
pmi_svc: 53.70 → 54.70 +1.00 (2016-10-01 → 2016-12-01)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-09-30 → 2016-12-23)
slope_2s10s: 0.46 → 0.27 -0.20 (2016-09-30 → 2016-12-23)
yield_10y: 2.73 → 3.18 +0.45 (2016-09-30 → 2016-12-23)
yield_2y: 2.26 → 2.91 +0.65 (2016-09-30 → 2016-12-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.60 +0.20 (2016-09-30 → 2016-12-16)
gdp: 0.10 → -0.10 -0.20 (2016-09-15 → 2016-12-16)
pmi_mfg: 52.60 → 54.90 +2.30 (2016-09-23 → 2016-12-15)
pmi_svc: 52.10 → 53.10 +1.00 (2016-09-23 → 2016-12-15)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2016-09-08 → 2016-12-08)
unemployment: 10.10 → 9.80 -0.30 (2016-09-30 → 2016-12-01)
yield_10y: 0.77 → 1.28 +0.52 (2016-10-01 → 2016-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.20 → 0.20 0.00 (2016-09-30 → 2016-11-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.50 → 0.10 +0.60 (2016-09-30 → 2016-11-25)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2016-09-21 → 2016-12-20)
unemployment: 3.10 → 3.00 -0.10 (2016-09-30 → 2016-11-29)
yield_10y: -0.05 → 0.04 +0.09 (2016-10-01 → 2016-12-01)

Busiest week: 2016-W43 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2016-W40 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose