Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

M6Growth slowdown (deepening contraction)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 49.4 → 49 (-0.4)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 and still falling.
Why: Below 50 means more firms are contracting than expanding; *falling* means the contraction is deepening, not bottoming — that combination is what leads earnings revisions down.
Investors rotate toward defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. and government bonds.
Why: When growth is deteriorating, steady-demand sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) hold earnings better, and government bonds act as a hedge that rallies if the slowdown deepens further.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and industrial commodities underperform.
Why: These are geared to the physical cycle and to leverage, so worsening activity hits their earnings and risk appetite hardest; commodity demand softens with industrial output.

Helps
defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare)long government bondsquality/large-cap

Hurts
cyclicalssmall-capsEM equityindustrial commodities

Caveat: A shallow dip just below 50 that quickly reverses ('soft patch') doesn't trigger the full defensive rotation; the level must persist.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

M2Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation)

Trigger: core_cpi: 0.8 → 0.6 (-0.2)

Core inflation falls more than the prior reading.
Why: A faster-than-expected cooling in the persistent part of inflation tells the market the central bank has more room to ease.
The market prices an earlier or deeper easing path.
Why: Lower inflation removes the reason to keep rates high, so traders pull forward expected cuts into the curve.
Real yieldsreal yield — The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation. fall.
Why: The expected policy ratepolicy rate — The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates. drops while inflation expectations stay anchored, so the inflation-adjusted return demanded by lenders declines.
A lower discount ratediscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. re-rates long-duration assets upward; long bonds rally.
Why: Future cash flows are now discounted less harshly, lifting growth equities most; bond prices rise mechanically as their yields fall.

Helps
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated government bondsgoldrate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs)

Hurts
USD (vs easing-laggard peers)bank net-interest margins

Caveat: Misfires if disinflation is driven by demand collapse rather than supply normalization — then the growth scare dominates and risk assets fall despite lower yields.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

M3Monetary easing (rate cut)

Trigger: policy_rate: 0.1 → -0.1 (-0.2)

The central bank cuts its policy rate.
Why: The policy rate anchors the entire rate structure, so a cut lowers the risk-free baseline against which every asset is valued.
Discount rates fall across asset classes and liquidity expectations rise.
Why: A lower risk-free rate raises the present value of future cash flows everywhere, and a cut signals the bank will keep conditions loose.
Risk assets re-rate up; the currency softens.
Why: Cheaper money flows toward higher-returning assets, and a lower local rate narrows the yield advantage of holding the currency, so it weakens.
The weaker currency lifts exporters, commodities, gold, and EM.
Why: Commodities priced in the easing currency rise in that currency; exporters gain competitiveness; and EM borrowers with dollar debt benefit as the dollar softens.

Helps
equities (broadly)goldEM assetslong-duration bondscommodities

Hurts
the easing currencycash/money-market real yield

Caveat: If the cut is an emergency response to a fast-deteriorating outlook ('cutting into a recession'), equities can fall even as bonds rally — the growth signal outweighs the liquidity boost.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.40	0.85	+0.55 ▲	2016-02-19
Core CPI	0.30	0.23	+0.07 ▬	2016-02-19
Core PCE	1.70	1.47	+0.23 ▲	2016-02-26
Policy rate	0.50	0.50	+0.00 ▬	2016-02-28
GDP	1.00	0.70	+0.30 ▲	2016-02-26
PMI (mfg)	48.20	48.20	+0.00 ▬	2016-02-01
PMI (svc)	53.50	55.30	-1.80 ▼	2016-02-03
Unemployment	4.90	4.90	+0.00 ▬	2016-02-05
10Y yield	1.76	1.71	+0.05 ▲	2016-02-26
2Y yield	0.80	0.72	+0.08 ▲	2016-02-26
2s10s slope	0.96	0.99	-0.03 ▬	2016-02-26
FX vs USD	n/a

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.80	1.60	+0.20 ▲	2016-02-18
Policy rate	4.30	4.30	+0.00 ▬	2016-02-26
GDP	6.80	6.90	-0.10 ▬	2016-01-19
PMI (mfg)	49.00	49.40	-0.40 ▼	2016-02-01
PMI (svc)	53.50	54.40	-0.90 ▼	2016-02-01
Unemployment	n/a
10Y yield	2.86	2.87	-0.01 ▬	2016-02-26
2Y yield	2.43	2.42	+0.01 ▬	2016-02-26
2s10s slope	0.43	0.45	-0.02 ▬	2016-02-26
FX vs USD	n/a

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.30	0.40	-0.10 ▼	2016-02-25
Policy rate	0.05	0.05	+0.00 ▬	2016-01-21
GDP	-1.40	0.00	-1.40 ▼	2016-02-25
PMI (mfg)	51.00	52.30	-1.30 ▼	2016-02-22
PMI (svc)	53.00	53.60	-0.60 ▼	2016-02-22
Unemployment	10.40	10.50	-0.10 ▬	2016-02-02
10Y yield	1.04	1.11	-0.07 ▼	2016-02-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.10	0.20	-0.30 ▼	2016-02-26
Core CPI	0.60	0.80	-0.20 ▼	2016-02-26
Policy rate	-0.10	0.10	-0.20 ▼	2016-01-29
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	3.30	3.30	+0.00 ▬	2016-01-29
10Y yield	-0.07	0.10	-0.16 ▼	2016-02-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate ✓: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield ✓: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.