Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2016-02

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2016-01daily glanceweekly archive →2016-03 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2016-02 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W07: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch
W08: goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M3 ×4 policy_easing
  • M2 ×1 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.23 → 0.30 +0.07 (2016-02-01 → 2016-02-19)
  • core_pce: 1.47 → 1.70 +0.23 (2016-02-01 → 2016-02-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.85 → 1.40 +0.55 (2016-02-01 → 2016-02-19)
  • gdp: 0.70 → 1.00 +0.30 (2016-01-29 → 2016-02-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2016-02-07 → 2016-02-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.12 → 0.96 -0.16 (2016-02-05 → 2016-02-26)
  • yield_10y: 1.86 → 1.76 -0.10 (2016-02-05 → 2016-02-26)
  • yield_2y: 0.74 → 0.80 +0.06 (2016-02-05 → 2016-02-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 1.80 +0.20 (2016-01-09 → 2016-02-18)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-02-06 → 2016-02-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.42 → 0.43 +0.01 (2016-02-06 → 2016-02-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.85 → 2.86 +0.00 (2016-02-06 → 2016-02-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.44 → 2.43 -0.01 (2016-02-06 → 2016-02-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.30 -0.10 (2016-01-29 → 2016-02-25)
  • gdp: 0.00 → -1.40 -1.40 (2016-01-19 → 2016-02-25)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.30 → 51.00 -1.30 (2016-02-01 → 2016-02-22)
  • pmi_svc: 53.60 → 53.00 -0.60 (2016-02-03 → 2016-02-22)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.80 → 0.60 -0.20 (2016-01-29 → 2016-02-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → -0.10 -0.30 (2016-01-29 → 2016-02-26)

Busiest week: 2016-W06 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2016-W05 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2016-02 vs 2016-01, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2016-02).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2016-W05

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · easing
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2016-W06

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · easing
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2016-W07

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · easing
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2016-W08

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · easing
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 2 active