Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2016-10

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2016-09daily glanceweekly archive →2016-11 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2016-10 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
China
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M2 ×1 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.12 → 0.10 -0.02 (2016-10-01 → 2016-10-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.69 → 1.50 -0.19 (2016-10-01 → 2016-10-18)
  • gdp: 2.20 → 2.90 +0.70 (2016-10-01 → 2016-10-28)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.40 → 51.50 +2.10 (2016-09-01 → 2016-10-03)
  • pmi_svc: 51.40 → 57.10 +5.70 (2016-09-06 → 2016-10-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2016-10-02 → 2016-10-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.83 → 1.00 +0.17 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-28)
  • unemployment: 4.90 → 5.00 +0.10 (2016-10-01 → 2016-10-07)
  • yield_10y: 1.60 → 1.86 +0.26 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-28)
  • yield_2y: 0.77 → 0.86 +0.09 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 1.90 +0.60 (2016-09-09 → 2016-10-14)
  • gdp: 6.70 → 6.70 0.00 (2016-07-15 → 2016-10-19)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.46 → 0.46 -0.01 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-28)
  • yield_10y: 2.73 → 2.70 -0.02 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.26 → 2.25 -0.01 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.40 0.00 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-17)
  • gdp: 0.10 → 0.40 +0.30 (2016-09-15 → 2016-10-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.60 → 53.30 +0.70 (2016-09-23 → 2016-10-24)
  • pmi_svc: 52.10 → 53.50 +1.40 (2016-09-23 → 2016-10-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2016-09-08 → 2016-10-20)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.20 → 0.00 -0.20 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-28)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → -0.50 0.00 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-28)
  • unemployment: 3.10 → 3.00 -0.10 (2016-09-30 → 2016-10-28)

Busiest week: 2016-W43 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2016-W40 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2016-10 vs 2016-09, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2016-10).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2016-W39

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2016-W40

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2016-W41

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2016-W42

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2016-W43

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active