Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2016-12

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2016-11daily glanceweekly archive →2017-01 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2016-12 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.18 → 0.20 +0.02 (2016-12-01 → 2016-12-15)
  • core_pce: 1.77 → 1.60 -0.17 (2016-12-01 → 2016-12-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.05 → 1.70 -0.35 (2016-12-01 → 2016-12-15)
  • gdp: 3.20 → 3.50 +0.30 (2016-11-29 → 2016-12-22)
  • pmi_svc: 54.80 → 57.20 +2.40 (2016-11-03 → 2016-12-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.75 +0.25 (2016-12-04 → 2016-12-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.29 → 1.33 +0.04 (2016-12-02 → 2016-12-23)
  • yield_10y: 2.40 → 2.55 +0.15 (2016-12-02 → 2016-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 1.11 → 1.22 +0.11 (2016-12-02 → 2016-12-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 2.30 +0.20 (2016-11-09 → 2016-12-09)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-12-02 → 2016-12-23)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.27 -0.24 (2016-12-02 → 2016-12-23)
  • yield_10y: 2.99 → 3.18 +0.19 (2016-12-02 → 2016-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.48 → 2.91 +0.43 (2016-12-02 → 2016-12-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 0.60 0.00 (2016-11-30 → 2016-12-16)
  • gdp: 0.20 → -0.10 -0.30 (2016-11-17 → 2016-12-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.70 → 54.90 +1.20 (2016-12-01 → 2016-12-15)
  • pmi_svc: 54.10 → 53.10 -1.00 (2016-11-23 → 2016-12-15)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2016-10-20 → 2016-12-08)
Japan
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2016-11-01 → 2016-12-20)

Busiest week: 2016-W50 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2016-W48 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2016-12 vs 2016-11, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2016-12).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2016-W48

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2016-W49

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2016-W50

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2016-W51

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active