Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2015-10

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2015-09daily glanceweekly archive →2015-11 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2015-10 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
deflation watch · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.20 +0.01 (2015-10-01 → 2015-10-15)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.13 → 0.00 -0.13 (2015-10-01 → 2015-10-15)
  • pmi_svc: 59.00 → 56.90 -2.10 (2015-09-03 → 2015-10-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-10-04 → 2015-10-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.41 → 1.43 +0.02 (2015-10-02 → 2015-10-23)
  • yield_10y: 1.99 → 2.09 +0.10 (2015-10-02 → 2015-10-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.58 → 0.66 +0.08 (2015-10-02 → 2015-10-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 1.60 -0.40 (2015-09-10 → 2015-10-14)
  • gdp: 7.00 → 6.90 -0.10 (2015-07-15 → 2015-10-19)
  • policy_rate: 4.55 → 4.55 0.00 (2015-09-30 → 2015-10-23)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.56 → 0.43 -0.13 (2015-09-30 → 2015-10-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.24 → 3.04 -0.20 (2015-09-30 → 2015-10-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.67 → 2.61 -0.06 (2015-09-30 → 2015-10-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2015-09-30 → 2015-10-16)
  • gdp: 0.00 → 0.20 +0.20 (2015-09-16 → 2015-10-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.00 → 52.00 0.00 (2015-10-01 → 2015-10-23)
  • pmi_svc: 54.00 → 54.20 +0.20 (2015-09-23 → 2015-10-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2015-09-03 → 2015-10-22)
Japan
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-09-15 → 2015-10-07)

Busiest week: 2015-W40 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2015-W40 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-10 vs 2015-09, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-10).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2015-W40

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2015-W41

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2015-W42

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2015-W43

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active