Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2015-12

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2015-11daily glanceweekly archive →2016-01 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2015-12 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.13 → 0.20 +0.07 (2015-12-01 → 2015-12-15)
  • core_pce: 1.19 → 1.30 +0.11 (2015-12-01 → 2015-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.64 → 0.50 -0.14 (2015-12-01 → 2015-12-15)
  • gdp: 2.10 → 2.00 -0.10 (2015-11-24 → 2015-12-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.50 +0.25 (2015-12-06 → 2015-12-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.32 → 1.22 -0.10 (2015-12-04 → 2015-12-24)
  • yield_10y: 2.28 → 2.25 -0.03 (2015-12-04 → 2015-12-24)
  • yield_2y: 0.96 → 1.03 +0.07 (2015-12-04 → 2015-12-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 1.50 +0.20 (2015-11-10 → 2015-12-09)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2015-12-04 → 2015-12-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.40 → 0.37 -0.03 (2015-12-04 → 2015-12-25)
  • yield_10y: 3.03 → 2.81 -0.22 (2015-12-04 → 2015-12-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.62 → 2.44 -0.19 (2015-12-04 → 2015-12-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.10 → 0.20 +0.10 (2015-12-02 → 2015-12-16)
  • gdp: 0.10 → -0.10 -0.20 (2015-11-16 → 2015-12-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.80 → 53.10 +0.30 (2015-12-01 → 2015-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 54.20 → 53.90 -0.30 (2015-12-03 → 2015-12-16)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.70 → 0.90 +0.20 (2015-11-27 → 2015-12-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2015-11-27 → 2015-12-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-11-19 → 2015-12-18)
  • unemployment: 3.10 → 3.30 +0.20 (2015-11-27 → 2015-12-25)

Busiest week: 2015-W51 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W49 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-12 vs 2015-11, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-12).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2015-W49

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2015-W50

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2015-W51

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2015-W52

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active