Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2015-07

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2015-06daily glanceweekly archive →2015-08 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2015-07 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W28: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.20 -0.01 (2015-07-01 → 2015-07-17)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.23 → 0.10 -0.13 (2015-07-01 → 2015-07-17)
  • pmi_svc: 55.70 → 56.00 +0.30 (2015-06-03 → 2015-07-06)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-07-05 → 2015-07-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.76 → 1.57 -0.19 (2015-07-02 → 2015-07-24)
  • yield_10y: 2.40 → 2.27 -0.13 (2015-07-02 → 2015-07-24)
  • yield_2y: 0.64 → 0.70 +0.06 (2015-07-02 → 2015-07-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 1.40 +0.20 (2015-06-09 → 2015-07-09)
  • gdp: 7.00 → 7.00 0.00 (2015-04-15 → 2015-07-15)
  • policy_rate: 4.80 → 4.80 0.00 (2015-07-03 → 2015-07-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.21 → 0.87 -0.34 (2015-07-03 → 2015-07-24)
  • yield_10y: 3.57 → 3.46 -0.11 (2015-07-03 → 2015-07-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.36 → 2.59 +0.23 (2015-07-03 → 2015-07-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.20 0.00 (2015-06-30 → 2015-07-16)
  • gdp: 0.20 → 0.00 -0.20 (2015-06-17 → 2015-07-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.50 → 52.20 -0.30 (2015-07-01 → 2015-07-24)
  • pmi_svc: 54.40 → 53.80 -0.60 (2015-07-03 → 2015-07-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2015-06-03 → 2015-07-16)
Japan
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-06-19 → 2015-07-15)

Busiest week: 2015-W28 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W27 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-07 vs 2015-06, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-07).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2015-W27

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2015-W28

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2015-W29

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2015-W30

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change