Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2015-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2015-07daily glanceweekly archive →2015-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2015-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-08-01 → 2015-08-19)
  • core_pce: 1.22 → 1.20 -0.02 (2015-08-01 → 2015-08-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.24 → 0.20 -0.04 (2015-08-01 → 2015-08-19)
  • gdp: 2.30 → 3.70 +1.40 (2015-07-30 → 2015-08-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.50 → 52.70 -0.80 (2015-07-01 → 2015-08-03)
  • pmi_svc: 56.00 → 60.30 +4.30 (2015-07-06 → 2015-08-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-08-02 → 2015-08-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.53 → 1.47 -0.06 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-28)
  • unemployment: 5.10 → 5.30 +0.20 (2015-08-01 → 2015-08-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.20 → 2.19 -0.01 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-28)
  • yield_2y: 0.67 → 0.72 +0.05 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.60 +0.20 (2015-07-09 → 2015-08-09)
  • policy_rate: 4.80 → 4.55 -0.25 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.90 → 0.77 -0.13 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.48 → 3.38 -0.09 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.57 → 2.61 +0.04 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.20 0.00 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-14)
  • gdp: 0.00 → -0.60 -0.60 (2015-07-16 → 2015-08-14)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.20 → 52.40 +0.20 (2015-07-24 → 2015-08-21)
  • pmi_svc: 53.80 → 54.30 +0.50 (2015-07-24 → 2015-08-21)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.60 → 0.60 0.00 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.20 -0.20 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-28)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-07-15 → 2015-08-07)
  • unemployment: 3.40 → 3.30 -0.10 (2015-07-31 → 2015-08-28)

Busiest week: 2015-W31 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W35 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-08 vs 2015-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2015-W31

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2015-W32

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2015-W33

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2015-W34

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2015-W35

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change