Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2015-04

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2015-03daily glanceweekly archive →2015-05 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2015-04 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
deflation watch · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch
W17: goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×3 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.25 → 0.20 -0.05 (2015-04-01 → 2015-04-17)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2015-04-01 → 2015-04-14)
  • pmi_svc: 56.90 → 56.50 -0.40 (2015-03-04 → 2015-04-06)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-04-05 → 2015-04-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.36 → 1.39 +0.03 (2015-04-03 → 2015-04-24)
  • yield_10y: 1.85 → 1.93 +0.08 (2015-04-03 → 2015-04-24)
  • yield_2y: 0.49 → 0.54 +0.05 (2015-04-03 → 2015-04-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.40 0.00 (2015-03-10 → 2015-04-10)
  • gdp: 7.30 → 7.00 -0.30 (2015-01-20 → 2015-04-15)
  • policy_rate: 5.30 → 5.30 0.00 (2015-04-03 → 2015-04-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 0.36 +0.01 (2015-04-03 → 2015-04-24)
  • yield_10y: 3.57 → 3.45 -0.13 (2015-04-03 → 2015-04-24)
  • yield_2y: 3.22 → 3.08 -0.13 (2015-04-03 → 2015-04-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2015-03-31 → 2015-04-17)
  • gdp: 0.60 → 1.10 +0.50 (2015-03-17 → 2015-04-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.20 → 51.90 -0.30 (2015-04-01 → 2015-04-23)
  • pmi_svc: 54.30 → 53.70 -0.60 (2015-03-24 → 2015-04-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2015-03-05 → 2015-04-15)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.00 → 2.10 +0.10 (2015-03-28 → 2015-04-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 2.30 +0.10 (2015-03-28 → 2015-04-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-03-17 → 2015-04-08)

Busiest week: 2015-W14 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2015-W17 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-04 vs 2015-03, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-04).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2015-W14

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W15

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W16

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2015-W17

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change