Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2015-06

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2015-05daily glanceweekly archive →2015-07 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2015-06 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W24: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
  • M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.16 → 0.10 -0.06 (2015-06-01 → 2015-06-18)
  • core_pce: 1.25 → 1.20 -0.05 (2015-06-01 → 2015-06-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.18 → 0.00 -0.18 (2015-06-01 → 2015-06-18)
  • gdp: -0.70 → -0.20 +0.50 (2015-05-29 → 2015-06-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-06-07 → 2015-06-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.68 → 1.77 +0.09 (2015-06-05 → 2015-06-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.41 → 2.49 +0.08 (2015-06-05 → 2015-06-26)
  • yield_2y: 0.73 → 0.72 -0.01 (2015-06-05 → 2015-06-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.20 -0.30 (2015-05-09 → 2015-06-09)
  • policy_rate: 5.05 → 5.05 0.00 (2015-06-05 → 2015-06-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.19 → 1.29 +0.10 (2015-06-05 → 2015-06-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.58 → 3.61 +0.03 (2015-06-05 → 2015-06-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.39 → 2.32 -0.07 (2015-06-05 → 2015-06-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2015-06-02 → 2015-06-17)
  • gdp: 0.20 → 0.20 0.00 (2015-05-19 → 2015-06-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.20 → 52.50 +0.30 (2015-06-01 → 2015-06-23)
  • pmi_svc: 53.80 → 54.40 +0.60 (2015-06-03 → 2015-06-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.40 → 0.40 0.00 (2015-05-26 → 2015-06-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 0.50 -0.10 (2015-05-26 → 2015-06-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-05-22 → 2015-06-19)
  • unemployment: 3.30 → 3.30 0.00 (2015-05-30 → 2015-06-26)

Busiest week: 2015-W23 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W26 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-06 vs 2015-05, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-06).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2015-W23

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2015-W24

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2015-W25

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active

2015-W26

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change