Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2015-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2015-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-H2 vs 2015-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall

W36: goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch · W49: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

China

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W28: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

Japan

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W31: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

no fires

Euro area

M5 ×3 growth_acceleration

Japan

M1 ×10 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.20 -0.01 (2015-07-01 → 2015-12-15)
core_pce: 1.18 → 1.30 +0.12 (2015-07-01 → 2015-12-23)
cpi_yoy: 0.23 → 0.50 +0.27 (2015-07-01 → 2015-12-15)
gdp: 1.60 → 2.00 +0.40 (2015-07-01 → 2015-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 53.50 → 48.60 -4.90 (2015-07-01 → 2015-12-01)
pmi_svc: 55.70 → 55.90 +0.20 (2015-06-03 → 2015-12-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.50 +0.25 (2015-07-05 → 2015-12-27)
slope_2s10s: 1.76 → 1.22 -0.54 (2015-07-02 → 2015-12-24)
unemployment: 5.30 → 5.00 -0.30 (2015-07-02 → 2015-12-04)
yield_10y: 2.40 → 2.25 -0.15 (2015-07-02 → 2015-12-24)
yield_2y: 0.64 → 1.03 +0.39 (2015-07-02 → 2015-12-24)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 1.50 +0.30 (2015-06-09 → 2015-12-09)
gdp: 7.00 → 6.90 -0.10 (2015-04-15 → 2015-10-19)
pmi_mfg: 50.00 → 49.70 -0.30 (2015-07-01 → 2015-12-01)
pmi_svc: 53.80 → 53.60 -0.20 (2015-07-01 → 2015-12-01)
policy_rate: 4.80 → 4.30 -0.50 (2015-07-03 → 2015-12-25)
slope_2s10s: 1.21 → 0.37 -0.84 (2015-07-03 → 2015-12-25)
yield_10y: 3.57 → 2.81 -0.77 (2015-07-03 → 2015-12-25)
yield_2y: 2.36 → 2.44 +0.07 (2015-07-03 → 2015-12-25)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.20 0.00 (2015-06-30 → 2015-12-16)
gdp: 0.20 → -0.10 -0.30 (2015-06-17 → 2015-12-16)
pmi_mfg: 52.50 → 53.10 +0.60 (2015-07-01 → 2015-12-16)
pmi_svc: 54.40 → 53.90 -0.50 (2015-07-03 → 2015-12-16)
policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2015-06-03 → 2015-12-03)
unemployment: 11.10 → 10.70 -0.40 (2015-06-30 → 2015-12-01)
yield_10y: 1.53 → 1.19 -0.34 (2015-07-01 → 2015-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.40 → 0.90 +0.50 (2015-06-26 → 2015-12-25)
cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.30 -0.20 (2015-06-26 → 2015-12-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-06-19 → 2015-12-18)
unemployment: 3.30 → 3.30 0.00 (2015-06-26 → 2015-12-25)
yield_10y: 0.41 → 0.27 -0.14 (2015-07-01 → 2015-12-01)

Busiest week: 2015-W51 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W35 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose