Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2015-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2015-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-H1 vs 2014-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W07: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W11: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W24: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Euro area

deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation

W14: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation · W17: goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch · W19: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation

Japan

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W22: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M9 ×3 yield_spike

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

Euro area

M9 ×9 yield_spike
M5 ×6 growth_acceleration

Japan

M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.10 +0.01 (2015-01-01 → 2015-06-18)
core_pce: 1.21 → 1.20 -0.01 (2015-01-01 → 2015-06-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.23 → 0.00 +0.23 (2015-01-01 → 2015-06-18)
gdp: 3.60 → -0.20 -3.80 (2015-01-01 → 2015-06-24)
pmi_mfg: 55.50 → 52.80 -2.70 (2015-01-02 → 2015-06-01)
pmi_svc: 59.30 → 55.70 -3.60 (2014-12-03 → 2015-06-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-01-04 → 2015-06-28)
slope_2s10s: 1.46 → 1.77 +0.31 (2015-01-02 → 2015-06-26)
unemployment: 5.70 → 5.50 -0.20 (2015-01-01 → 2015-06-05)
yield_10y: 2.12 → 2.49 +0.37 (2015-01-02 → 2015-06-26)
yield_2y: 0.66 → 0.72 +0.06 (2015-01-02 → 2015-06-26)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.20 -0.20 (2014-12-10 → 2015-06-09)
gdp: 7.30 → 7.00 -0.30 (2014-10-21 → 2015-04-15)
pmi_mfg: 49.80 → 50.20 +0.40 (2015-01-01 → 2015-06-01)
pmi_svc: 54.10 → 53.20 -0.90 (2015-01-01 → 2015-06-01)
policy_rate: 5.51 → 5.05 -0.46 (2015-01-04 → 2015-06-26)
slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 1.29 +0.97 (2015-01-04 → 2015-06-26)
yield_10y: 3.63 → 3.61 -0.02 (2015-01-04 → 2015-06-26)
yield_2y: 3.31 → 2.32 -0.99 (2015-01-04 → 2015-06-26)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2014-12-17 → 2015-06-17)
gdp: -0.20 → 0.20 +0.40 (2014-12-17 → 2015-06-17)
pmi_mfg: 50.60 → 52.50 +1.90 (2015-01-02 → 2015-06-23)
pmi_svc: 51.90 → 54.40 +2.50 (2014-12-16 → 2015-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2014-12-04 → 2015-06-03)
unemployment: 11.50 → 11.10 -0.40 (2014-11-28 → 2015-06-03)
yield_10y: 1.27 → 1.66 +0.39 (2015-01-01 → 2015-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.10 → 0.40 -1.70 (2014-12-26 → 2015-06-26)
cpi_yoy: 2.40 → 0.50 -1.90 (2014-12-26 → 2015-06-26)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-12-19 → 2015-06-19)
unemployment: 3.50 → 3.30 -0.20 (2014-12-30 → 2015-06-26)
yield_10y: 0.28 → 0.46 +0.18 (2015-01-01 → 2015-06-01)

Busiest week: 2015-W23 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W07 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose